Will minor right-wing parties surge this election?

We are in danger of being swamped by right-wing minor parties this election, all eager to capitalise on the return of Donald Trump with their own unique MAGA flavour.

Clive Palmer is once again spending big on misleading ads with his latest vehicle, Trumpet of Patriots, a renamed Australian Federation Party, of which he is now chair. The branding is much the same as 2022’s United Australia Party (i.e. offensively yellow), though the message is less about freedom from lockdowns and more overtly Trumpian, promising to “drain the swamp” of the major parties. Palmer recently called for the PM to “apologise” to Trump for things Kevin Rudd has said, while suggesting we loosen our biosecurity rules to let in more US beef.

There is a new Hanson on the scene in the form of Lee, Pauline’s “diplomatic” daughter and One Nation’s lead candidate in Tasmania. Lee Hanson has appeared in media interviews with and without Pauline, admitting she knows her mum can be “polarising”, while saying how much she learned from her. Lee puts a more palatable face on the nativist party, sticking to talking about education and health. But she appears to be in direct competition with Jacqui Lambie for her Tasmanian Senate spot, a tough ask on Lambie’s home turf.

Former Liberal MP Craig Kelly is back, following his unsuccessful bid to retain his seat as the leader of United Australia, this time as the Libertarian Party’s lead NSW Senate candidate. The party may be feeling confident in NSW after doing well in local elections — though that may have had more to do with the Liberals stuffing up registration than anything else.

Contentious anti-vax Senator Gerard Rennick, who quit to form his self-titled party after missing out on Liberal preselection, may have an outside chance at the final spot in Queensland — though he’ll be competing with Malcolm Roberts, One Nation’s longest-serving senator other than Pauline herself, who faces his third bid for reelection.

As is usually the case, pollsters don’t give Aussie right-wing grifters much of a chance in this upcoming election. But with major party support reaching all-time lows, is the moment ripe for a right-wing surge?

Not really, says Monash senior lecturer Ben Moffitt, an expert in right-wing populism. Moffit says a slight lift in recent polls (One Nation was up one point in the latest Newspoll to 7%, Trumpet of Patriots up one point in YouGov to 2%) is “just noise”, with the times no more suited to such parties than usual.

“I would say in some ways it’s more difficult than previously,” says Moffit. “Because there’s a nominally centre-left government in power, if you truly want to see right-wing parties back in government, you’re probably going to vote for Liberals.

“The other thing is, as compared to Morrison and previously Turnbull, in terms of a leadership style, Dutton is far more, if not ideologically, certainly stylistically, in line with a number of these parties,” Moffit adds, noting the opposition leader has the nativist and “law and order” elements of the right well covered. The scapegoating of immigrants, especially international students, is now permeating mainstream politics, requiring minor parties to make increasingly extreme proposals to cut through.

Trump associations, meanwhile, may actually disadvantage such groups in the current climate, with Trump’s tariffs threatening to do major damage to the economy.

“I think those associations are going to become toxic, not necessarily in the long term, but I think in the short term when we’re all worried about, you know, the cost of living,” he says. “The Australian election couldn’t be at a worse time for anyone aligning with Trump — this is not going to be sorted out in the next month.”

That’s certainly something Dutton seems to have grasped, backing away from some of his more Trumpian positions. I do wonder, however, if the Coalition’s shift could be good news for the right-wing minor parties, who may now find themselves better able to appeal to the handful of MAGA diehards within the Australian electorate.

“I would buy that,” says Moffit. “I think that could open up space for people who want to present themselves, as these parties tend to do, as challengers and as ‘true believers’ in the cause.”

Not that one could really call Palmer a “true believer” in the cause. Australia’s biggest political spender doesn’t seem to believe in anything in particular, shifting positions every cycle, leaving many baffled as to why he is once again throwing millions at a doomed cause. Though, as he said during a recent Trumpet of Patriots press conference, this is like his version of golf.

Moffit, nevertheless, will be watching the Labor-held seat of Hunter on election night, where Trumpet of Patriots (ToP) and One Nation are each running their best bet at a lower house seat — ToP leader Suellen Wrightson and returning One Nation candidate Stuart Bonds, who won a 21.6% primary last time he ran.

The final Senate seat in each state could be anyone’s game, particularly in Queensland, where One Nation, People First, and perhaps even the Jacqui Lambie Network will be hoping to nab the spot, though the rules are far less favourable to minor parties than they were when Lambie herself first got up — also under the Palmer brand.

So could Palmer succeed in buying himself another senator? As Ralph Babet’s 2022 win in Victoria shows, anything could happen with the right flow of right-wing preferences. And absolutely anything could happen after that, with Palmer nominees often heading in an entirely different direction.

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