by Calculated Risk on 7/31/2025 08:35:00 AM
From the BEA: Personal Income and Outlays, June 2025
Personal income increased $71.4 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in June, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $61.0 billion (0.3 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $69.9 billion (0.3 percent).
Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $69.5 billion in June. Personal saving was $1.01 trillion in June and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.5 percent.
From the preceding month, the PCE price index for June increased 0.3 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index also increased 0.3 percent.
From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for June increased 2.6 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 2.8 percent from one year ago.
emphasis added
The June PCE price index increased 2.6 percent year-over-year (YoY), up from 2.3 percent YoY in May.
The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through June 2025 (2017 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn’t start at zero to better show the change.
Click on graph for larger image.
The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE.
Personal income was at expectations and PCE was below expectations.
Inflation was slightly above expectations.
