by Calculated Risk on 7/24/2025 10:00:00 AM
The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 627 thousand.
The previous three months were revised down, combined.
Sales of new single-family houses in June 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 627,000, according to
estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
This is 0.6 percent above the May 2025 rate of 623,000, and is 6.6 percent below the June 2024 rate of 671,000.
emphasis added
Click on graph for larger image.
The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.
New home sales were below pre-pandemic levels.
The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.
The months of supply increased in June to 9.8 months from 9.7 months in May.
The all-time record high was 12.2 months of supply in January 2009. The all-time record low was 3.3 months in August 2020.
This is well above the top of the normal range (about 4 to 6 months of supply is normal).
“The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of June 2025 was 511,000. This is 1.2 percent above the May 2025 estimate of 505,000, and is 8.5 percent (±5.4 percent) above the June 2024 estimate of 471,000.
This represents a supply of 9.8 months at the current sales rate. The months’ supply is 1.0 percent above the May 2025 estimate of 9.7 months, and is 16.7 percent above the June 2024 estimate of 8.4 months.”
Sales were below expectations of 650 thousand SAAR and sales for the three previous months were revised down, combined. I’ll have more later today.
