by Calculated Risk on 6/08/2025 08:07:00 AM
From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Increases 4% in May
The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge
Construction Network, grew 3.7% in May to 211.2 (2000=100) from the downwardly revised
April reading of 203.5. Over the month, commercial planning grew 0.8% while institutional
planning improved 10.5%.“Nonresidential planning continued to accelerate in May, primarily driven by strong project
activity on the institutional side of the DMI,” stated Sarah Martin, associate director of
forecasting at Dodge Construction Network. “Planning momentum moderately improved on the
commercial side as well, following subdued growth in that sector over the last few months –
outside of data centers. Increased economic and policy uncertainty will continue to contribute to
heightened volatility in the project data – but in aggregate, planning activity is on steady footing.”After a very strong April, data center projects returned to more typical levels in May and
constrained overall commercial planning. Without data center projects, the commercial portion
of the DMI would have improved 5% and the entire DMI would have grown 7% over the month.
Accelerated warehouse and hotel planning drove the commercial portion of the Index, while
office and retail planning remained flat. On the institutional side, a strong uptick in education and
recreational projects drove this month’s gains, partially offset by a mild slowdown in healthcare
planning.In May, the DMI was up 24% when compared to year-ago levels. The commercial segment was
up 15% from May 2024, and the institutional segment was up 47% after a weak May last year. If
all data center projects between 2023 and 2025 are excluded, commercial planning would be up
4% from year-ago levels and the entire DMI would be up 17%.
…
The DMI is a monthly measure of the value of nonresidential building projects going into planning, shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year.
emphasis added
Click on graph for larger image.
This graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. The index was at 211.2 in May, up from 203.5 the previous month.
According to Dodge, this index leads “construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year”. This index suggests a pickup in mid-2025, however, uncertainty might impact these projects.
Commercial construction is typically a lagging economic indicator.
