Investment analyst firm JP Morgan is predicting that Apple shares will improve in the short term, and predicts a target price rise by the end of 2026, through moderate iPhone 17 demand, but greater Services revenues.
In June 2025, JP Morgan trimmed its Apple target price to $230, specifically because of weaknesses in iPhone and Services sales. Now in a note to investors seen by AppleInsiderit’s saying that Apple’s outlook is better than previously imagined.
Ahead of Apple’s Q3 earnings call on August 1, 2025, JP Morgan is expecting limited improvement for this quarter, but better results to follow later in 2025 and up to the end of 2026.
The company does hedge its bets, saying repeatedly that iPhone demand will be lower than previously expected. But it also describes that lower demand as being robust, and also expects that the hardware supply chain will perform better.
That will be because it presumes Apple has managed to mitigate against tariff pressures, at least as much as it can. The company has rerouted its supply and distribution chains to minimize its exposure to Trump’s changing tariffs.
JP Morgan does not expect an upgrade super-cycle with the iPhone 17 range, based on what it describes as the already well-known specifications of the new models. It also doesn’t expect to see Apple Intelligence integration making a great deal of difference to sales.
Its analysts are also down on potential problems coming from the DOJ’s lawsuit against Google, which could mean Apple losing its approximately $20 billion annual income from the search engine.
Yet all of this also contributes to how JP Morgan sees Apple’s situation being more positive than investors might presume. The market has lowered expectations, and Apple tends to have resilient financial results regardless of problems.
Plus, JP Morgan predicts fractionally better results for Q3 2025 than the rest of the industry. It predicts overall revenues to the end of June 2025 being $89.6 billion, where the consensus is $89.2 billion.
It’s a similar case with the iPhone, where JP Morgan now expects $39.9 billion in revenue. The consensus is $39.8 billion.
Going into Q4, JP Morgan expects that the iPhone 17 range will have price increases, and that this will mean largely flat revenue growth. For this quarter, its estimates are below consensus, though, with iPhone predicted to earn $43.9 billion as opposed to other analysts who expect it to be $46.2 billion.
Throughout its investor note, JP Morgan keeps pointing out potential problems and concluding that sales will either be flat or fractionally improved. This would be why it hasn’t done what it normally does and altered its current price target, which remains at $230.
However, it is forecasting enough improvement and predicting sufficient potential for what it calls surprise growth in Services that it expects to change its price. By the end of 2026, the company predicts that it will have raised its Apple stock price target to $250.
The cautious but overall positive review of Apple’s potential over the next year or more echoes similar reports to investors by Morgan Stanley. Though it too is maintaining its current target price, which is $235.
