Did Muslim Votes Matter make a difference?

Photos of the latest neo-Nazi stunt began appearing in my social media feeds while the democracy sausages were still being served. Masked, black-clad figures wielding Australian flags holding banners on overpasses along the Monash Freeway in Melbourne: “NO BLACK VOTES SHOULD COUNT”, “NO MUSLIM VOTES SHOULD COUNT”, “ONLY AUSSIE VOTES SHOULD COUNT”.

This small group of attention-seekers was heavily outnumbered by the hundreds of thousands of Black, Blak and Muslim “Aussie” voters who exercised their right to vote in this election, many of them with the encouragement of the Muslim Votes Matter (MVM) lobby group.

Galvanised by the genocide currently underway in Gaza, Muslim Votes Matter set out to “turn” marginal electorates with substantial Muslim populations. Speakers at the group’s campaign launch said the optimal outcome for Australian Muslims would be a hung parliament, which opinion polls at the time indicated was on the cards.

As is now clear, voters instead opted to return the Albanese government with an increased majority.

In a text exchange late on Saturday night, Muslim Votes Matter spokesperson Ghaith Krayem was nonetheless upbeat, claiming credit for the outcome in Banks and Wills, which saw strong swings towards the ALP and Greens respectively. MVM had placed the Greens candidate at the top of their list in Banks, with the victorious ALP candidate in fifth position above the Liberal Party incumbent in sixth place.

“We will do a full analysis in the coming days but are confident that this will support our initial views. This election has set a great foundation for our community to build from.”

In Wills particularly, polling and the media anticipated a close race between Labor and the Greens due to shifting demographics and a redrawing of the seat’s boundaries, favouring the Greens. However, the seat is currently on a knife-edge between ALP incumbent Peter Khalil and Greens challenger Samantha Ratnam, with Khalil leading by fewer than 3,000 votes after 74.5% counted.

My unscientific straw-polling in Wills indicated a disconnect between the strong momentum Muslim Votes Matter attained on social and even mainstream media and the degree of awareness about the organisation among Muslims out there in the real world.

Many of the Muslim voters who I spoke to had heard of Muslim Votes Matter, but conflated them with other Muslim organisations and campaigns. Few were aware of which candidate Muslim Votes Matter were recommending in their electorate, although they correctly guessed that it would not be Peter Khalil. And while there was enormous anger about the ALP’s (lack of) response to the genocide in Gaza, this did not necessarily translate into a willingness to vote for the Greens.

Samantha Ratnam has alienated some people in the Turkish community — while presumably attracting support from the Kurdish community — for her alleged support for the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, known as the PKK. The PKK is listed as a terrorist organisation in both Türkiye and Australia, with Melbourne woman Cigdem Aslan arrested on suspicion of PKK activism (which she denies) at Istanbul airport last September. Samantha Ratman and David Shoebridge are among those who have spoken out in support of Aslam.

Others said they would not vote Green because (in the words of one middle-aged Egyptian-born male) “they’re just all about the LGBTs”. The issue of religious freedom in schools has been a point of contention between Muslim Votes Matter and the Greens, with MVM wanting to retain the right for religious schools to discriminate against staff and students based on their sexuality. The MVM spokespeople clearly decided this was not a deal-breaker, but some Muslim voters may have decided otherwise. Further, not many religiously observant Muslims would have been likely to follow the MVM recommendation to preference the Legalise Cannabis candidate above Peter Khalil in Wills.

At the other end of the spectrum, some Muslims were angered by MVM’s decision to preference Liberal candidates ahead of the ALP in four electorates, including in Cowan, retained by Anne Aly, the only Muslim woman in the House of Representatives. One Muslim voter described this decision as “very politically unsophisticated and immature. It is cutting off your nose to spite your face”. Disillusionment with Labor runs deep, but for most, not so deep as to risk a Dutton victory.

“Vote for Palestine, brother!” a MVM volunteer shouted at a visibly Muslim man as he made his way to the polling booth in Wills yesterday. Passing vehicles honked their support at signs telling them “Choosing Sides? Don’t be on the GenoSide!” Ghaith Krayem and the other MVM volunteers I spoke to reported receiving a very positive reception from both Muslims and non-Muslims outside the polling booths, but of course whether they followed the MVM how-to-vote card once inside the booth is an open question.

The Muslim Votes Matter campaign marks a significant shift in political engagement by Australian Muslims. This is a shift that the campaign has reflected rather than created, and it is likely to be a factor in the forthcoming Victorian state election. Despite the bump in the ALP’s primary vote this election, the decline in the primary vote of the major parties and the opening this provides for organisations like Muslim Votes Matter is a trend set to continue.

And the possible election of 21-year-old South Australian Charlotte Walker to the Senate does not obscure the fact that the ALP has alienated a cohort of young voters, potential future staffers, candidates and parliamentarians via its failure to take meaningful action in support of Palestine, climate justice and Indigenous sovereignty. After all, Walker is a reminder of the last time that a young woman was unexpectedly elected as a Labor senator. Young Labor has expressed strong support for Senator Fatima Payman since her exile from the party for her uncompromising stance on Palestine. There is little sign that Old Labor is listening.