by Calculated Risk on 5/09/2025 11:00:00 AM
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-May 2025
A brief excerpt:
This 2-part overview for mid-May provides a snapshot of the current housing market.
Right now, the key story for existing homes is that inventory is increasing sharply, and sales are essentially flat compared to last year. That means prices will be under pressure (although there will not be a huge wave of distressed sales).
Yesterday, Realtor.com reported that there were “more than 1 million homes for sale last week, crossing this threshold for the first time since December 2019”.
…
Since inventory has increased sharply and sales are flat, a key for house prices is to watch months-of-supply. The following graph shows months-of-supply since 2017 using data from the NAR. Note that months-of-supply is higher than the previous 8 years!
Months-of-supply was at 4.0 months in March compared to 3.8 months in March 2019.
Inventory would probably have to increase to 5 1/2 to 6 months of supply to see national price declines.
There is much more in the article.
