Can the 2022 ‘teal’ incumbents ward off their Liberal challengers?

The Liberal Party seems confident of winning back some of its former heartland, but demographic changes are not on its side.

When the 2022 “teal” wave swept through Australia’s richest seats, many presumed the climate-led indies would stay awhile. Along with Zali Steggall, who won Warringah in 2019, Allegra Spender, Sophie Scamps, Kate Chaney, Monique Ryan and Zoe Daniel (plus Kylea Tink, had North Sydney continued) seemed likely to be returned, bolstered by the fact the Liberals chose Peter Dutton as their new leader, his sights set on Labor’s heartland.

Dutton’s outer suburban strategy appears to have fizzled during the campaign, recognised for the con that it is. But could some small-l liberals perhaps be returning to the big L-Liberal fold, putting their hip pockets ahead of their climate concerns?

It’s a question that will shape the next crossbench, from which a presumably Labor minority government will be hoping to draw support (Anthony Albanese would clearly prefer working with independents to the Greens, though that could change if Labor loses seats to the indies movement next). It’s one I’ve pondered throughout this term, but especially in recent weeks, as right-wing attacks dominate what have become some of the most bitterly fought races in the country.

Lobby groups like Advance, Better Australia, Australians for Prosperity (run by a former Liberal MP, funded by the coal lobby) and News Corp have spent months attacking the teals, while the Libs regularly claim they vote like Greens, as if that isn’t what many of their voters elected them to do. Spender this week denounced anonymous pamphlets in Wentworth, accusing her of weakness on antisemitism, while footage of a local surgeon stomping on a Ryan corflute while praising Trump went viral.

In all these seats bar one, the Coalition has put forward a new candidate: former Tabcorp presenter Jaimee Rogers in Warringah, venture capitalist Ro Knox in Wentworth, ex-RSL boss and ex-Turnbull son-in-law James Brown in Mackellar, former Uber exec Tom White in Curtin, and millennial “financier” Amelia Hamer in Kooyong. Only in Goldstein is an aggrieved former Liberal MP running again.

Analysis abounds, with various articles suggesting this or that MP is at risk, mostly based on party sources. This past week, the AFR and Guardian both cited Goldstein and Curtin, while The Australian says Wentworth is on the cards, despite a redistribution having increased Spender’s already healthy margin.

According to Redbridge’s Kos Samaras, who did polling for Climate 200 last election, no-one really knows which seats the Libs could win back next week — unless they’ve undertaken a seat-specific poll, a wildly expensive activity (the Oz does cite one, though its sample size is tiny). Samaras believes Liberal claims about Goldstein and Curtin are simply echoing MRP narratives that could very well be out of date. Each of the teal seats has individual quirks and issues, with the candidate and campaigns hugely important, unable to be captured by national polls.

That said, there’s no doubt the demographics in these seats are trending away from the Liberals, with progressive voting millennial and gen Z voters usurping baby boomers.

“What we are seeing across all our research is historic levels of support for the parties of the left amongst gen Z,” Samaras says, noting that polls struggle to pick up young progressive voters. “In a seat like Kooyong, where there has been an unusual number of high enrolments of this generation, that’s a bad omen for the Liberal campaign.”

While many teal voters are strategic Labor and Greens voters, an important fraction are disaffected Libs, some of whom the indies will need to hold, sans the “Scott Morrison” factor. But even if some are flowing back, the number of young people coming onto the electoral roll should easily outnumber those returning to the Liberals.

If Samaras was confident of the teal incumbents before the campaign, he’s even more confident now. Many Liberal policies will have played terribly in these seats, including the anti-“work from home” policy, since ditched, and nuclear, which now rarely rates a mention. While the Libs have sought to make the economy key to their pitch, arguing climate concerns are now a “luxury product”, the independents have pivoted too, focusing on tax reform and housing.

The Coalition’s negative campaigning, meanwhile, could be putting off as many voters as it attracts. The Liberal Party’s One Nation preference deal is likely to go down like a lead balloon in well-heeled Warringah and Wentworth, while the Coalition is still struggling to walk away from its Trump associations, especially toxic in cosmopolitan Kooyong.

No-one will know, of course, until election day — as Samaras points out, these kinds of contests are difficult to poll or predict. But the incumbent teal seats will all be ones to watch, as we wait to find out whether some of them really are still blue after all.

Will the Libs be able to win back any teal seats?

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