by Calculated Risk on 6/20/2025 11:45:00 AM
There will be some trade related distortions in Q2.
From BofA:
Overall, 2Q GDP tracking is down from 2.7% q/q saar to 2.6%. [June 17th estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman:
We lowered our Q2 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +4.1% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q2 domestic final sales estimate by the same amount to +0.1%. [June 18th estimate]
And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 3.4 percent on June 18, down from 3.5 percent on June 17. [June 18th estimate]
