The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway’s Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says ‘The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.’ So it seems the smart money knows that debt – which is usually involved in bankruptcies – is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We note that Bapcor Limited (ASX:BAP) does have debt on its balance sheet. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
The latest balance sheet data shows that Bapcor had liabilities of AU$347.9m due within a year, and liabilities of AU$551.4m falling due after that. On the other hand, it had cash of AU$80.2m and AU$203.8m worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling AU$615.4m more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
While this might seem like a lot, it is not so bad since Bapcor has a market capitalization of AU$2.21b, and so it could probably strengthen its balance sheet by raising capital if it needed to. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk.
We measure a company’s debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
Bapcor’s net debt is only 1.2 times its EBITDA. And its EBIT covers its interest expense a whopping 10.3 times over. So we’re pretty relaxed about its super-conservative use of debt. While Bapcor doesn’t seem to have gained much on the EBIT line, at least earnings remain stable for now. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Bapcor can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you’re focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So it’s worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, Bapcor recorded free cash flow worth 54% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.
