Will bulls reach $7 or fall back?

• Render bulls challenged the $4.4 resistance level, aiming for a breakout toward $7.
• The distribution trends and lack of development activity were warning signs.

In a post on X last week, user Bitcoinsensus noted that Render [RENDER] was set to climb higher from the $3 demand zone.

A reclamation of the $4.4 could set up a breakout beyond $7 and present a buying opportunity, as noted in the attached chart.

The massive retracement in 2024 and 2025 was seen as part of the bullish pennant that the altcoin has formed. A move beyond $7 would signal a breakout past this pennant, making the previous high at $13 a target.

The $4.4 resistance level was being challenged at press time. If it were flipped to support, should traders and investors buy more RENDER?

Warning signs from Render

The development activity behind the decentralized GPU-based rendering solutions provider was negligible, according to Santiment data.

This was a major concern for investors, as it signaled fewer improvements and patches for the network.

The 7-day RSI was at 50, signaling a bullish momentum shift. The social volume has slowly increased over the past month. However, this was not indicative of a RENDER rally by itself.

Another sign of worry came from the network value metrics. The mean coin age has been dropping rapidly in the past three months and was at a level last seen in August 2024.

The falling mean coin age indicated that older coins were spent or moved, a sign of selling pressure from holders.

The price bounce in the past two weeks took the 90-day MVRV above zero. This showed that medium-term holders were at a slight profit, but also underlined a strong distribution trend.

Together, it did not present a buy signal.

The daily active addresses metric has also been in a downtrend since November 2024. The recent price surge did not come alongside a surge in network activity.

Therefore, there was a good chance that the price bounce might falter, giving holders a chance to exit their positions.

Technical analysis highlighted the importance of the $4.4 resistance.

Yet, the lack of network participation, as well as the distribution phase of the past three months, meant that investors should be careful if they want to bid on RENDER.