Trump’s review of AUKUS is Albanese’s chance to ditch the deal

Two of the three members of AUKUS are now reviewing the agreement.

The UK House of Commons defence committee commenced one in April. Now the Trump administration’s leading AUKUS sceptic, Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby, is reviewing it as well.

Our own government, now the odd mug out, is cheerfully insisting all is well.

“Our engagement with the Trump administration and across the full political spectrum in the United States has shown clear and consistent support for AUKUS,” Defence Minister Richard Marles said this morning. “We look forward to continuing our close cooperation with the Trump administration on this historic project.”

That closer cooperation is likely to come at some cost. As any realistic appraisal would, the Colby review is likely going to conclude that the construction rate of Virginia-class boats by the US Navy — required to enable it to spare up to five second-hand ones for the Royal Australian Navy — is wildly in excess of what the US can manage in the next four years, given the current production rate is around 1.2, rather than the 2.3 required. The obvious recommendation from such a conclusion is that Australia should hand a lot more than the currently agreed US$3 billion to America to speed up construction.

Given Anthony Albanese’s dismissiveness toward recent Trump administration calls for a rapid and massive increase in defence spending by Australia, that’s likely to be the least worst possible outcome for the government. What happens if Colby comes back and suggests Australia’s defence spending is insufficient to justify AUKUS?

Then there’s the bipartisan view within the US defence establishment that Australia should be clearer that it will dispatch any AUKUS subs to join a US war with China. That’s an abrogation of sovereignty so huge that even Marles, the member for the Pentagon and the man who has overseen the enmeshment of Australia’s territory, military, intelligence and foreign affairs capabilities with the US, has baulked at it.

The irony is that the Brits and the Americans are subjecting AUKUS to far more scrutiny than it has ever received here, given Labor signed up to the disaster within hours of Scott Morrison announcing it in the hope of altering his hopeless political trajectory. The only parliamentary review of AUKUS has been of the actual agreement, by the joint committee on treaties, and the compulsory examination by the Senate’s defence and foreign affairs committee of legislation implementing aspects of the AUKUS project, like extending the nuclear regulatory framework to encompass defence. The major parties have never permitted an examination of the merits of the entire project, even as evidence has mounted that the Virginia-class boats will never make it here.

The US review, and the possible increase in the asking price it foreshadows, is the perfect opportunity for Albanese to walk away from a disastrous agreement. The remnants of the opposition lack any credibility or policy position. There will be blowback from the rusted-on representatives of US military interests in the commentariat and at ASPI, but they are shilling for an emerging fascist dictatorship that views its own people as enemies. The budget situation is precarious, and AUKUS is widely viewed as sucking crucial resources away from more immediate defence priorities.

Albanese doesn’t have to abandon AUKUS wholesale: the longer-term SSN-AUKUS plan has real buy-in from the UK government, and Australia can be confident that those boats will be delivered from the 2040s onward. In the UK, Australia has a stable, normal, reliable ally whose word can be trusted, not a collection of psychotic toddlers.

The government could then approach Japan, Korea (Hanwha has a standing offer to Australia), Sweden and Germany about providing a fleet of diesel-electric submarines to fill the gap between the Collins-class boats and the SSN-AUKUS boats. Such vessels would have the advantage of not being tied to the demands of the country that produces them to be used in its military plans against our primary trade partner.

A deal with South Korea or Japan would strengthen our defence ties with regional allies, who are in the same position as us of losing a reliable US ally in the face of an increasingly assertive China. A deal with Germany could form part of a broader security agreement with the European Union. Either outcome would be a win for Australia in addressing the loss of our US security guarantee. And the danger of a major gap in Australia’s submarine capability would be avoided.

But that won’t happen. The Albanese government, from the top down, lacks the capacity for imaginative thinking. Its leaden-footed response to the chaos inflicted by Trump suggests an obsession with convincing itself to stick with business as usual, rather than a nimble, creative response to emerging threats and opportunities. The modern ALP and the defence establishment are too enmeshed in the US defence apparatus to think of a world outside it.

Trump should dramatically lift the asking price for AUKUS — in Albanese and Marles, he has some palookas who’ll pay it.