A new trade shockwave
When Donald Trump announced his plan to impose reciprocal tariffs on countries that levy higher duties on American goods than the U.S. does on theirs, the global trading system braced for disruption. For Africa, and Nigeria in particular, the policy threatens to upend fragile economies already grappling with sluggish growth, debt burdens, and reliance on commodity exports. While the direct impact of Trump’s tariffs may be muted compared to their effect on China or the EU, the indirect consequences—reduced investment, strained diplomatic ties, and retaliatory trade barriers—could prove damaging.
Trump’s trade philosophy is simple: America should not be a “patsy” (his term) in global commerce. If another country taxes U.S. goods at 20 percent, America should respond in kind. While the primary targets are economic heavyweights like China and the EU, Africa is not immune. The continent’s trade with the U.S. is modest—just 1.6 percent of America’s total trade in 2023—but Nigeria, South Africa, and Kenya are among the nations with higher tariffs on American products than vice versa.
Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy, imposes an average tariff of 12.5 percent (ACIOE) on U.S. imports, while the U.S. charges just 3.5 percent on Nigerian goods under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). If Trump enforces reciprocity, Nigeria could see its exports—mostly crude oil and agricultural products—hit with steep new tariffs, eroding its competitive edge.
Nigeria’s vulnerability
Nigeria’s economy is already under strain: inflation is at 23.18% as of March 17, 2025 (investing.com), the naira has plummeted, and debt servicing consumes 65 percent (punching) of government revenue. A tariff war with the U.S. would worsen these woes in three ways:
1. AGOA at risk – Since 2000, AGOA has granted duty-free access for over 6,000 products from eligible African nations. Nigeria exported $6.29 billion worth of goods to the U.S. in 2023 (Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC)), mostly crude oil. If Trump scraps AGOA or imposes tariffs, Nigeria’s oil revenues—already diminished by falling production—could shrink further.
2. Foreign investment fears – American firms like Procter & Gamble, Pfizer, and Coca-Cola have long operated in Nigeria. But if trade tensions escalate, investors may pull back, fearing instability. Nigeria’s manufacturing sector, which contributes 32.58 percent of GDP (statista.com), cannot afford this blow.
3. Food Price pressures – Nigeria imports $10 billion worth of food annually, including American wheat and rice. If reciprocal tariffs raise import costs, already soaring food prices could spike further, worsening hunger in a country where 25 million face acute food insecurity.
The implication of a 14% tariff
The U.S. President, Donald Trump, has announced a baseline 10 percent tariff on all U.S. imports, imposing a 14 percent tariff on all exports from Nigeria.
In 2023, Nigeria exported $6.29B worth of goods to the U.S.; crude oil exports were $4.73B, gas $920M, and fertiliser $167M.
The implication of the imposition of a higher tariff on goods coming from Nigeria to the U.S. is that there will be a reduction in revenue from crude, which has been the mainstay of the economy.
“The implication of the imposition of a higher tariff on goods coming from Nigeria to the U.S. is that there will be a reduction in revenue from crude, which has been the mainstay of the economy.”
Broader African fallout
Beyond Nigeria, other African economies could suffer:
· South Africa – The U.S. is its third-largest trading partner, with $15 billion in bilateral trade in 2023. Trump has previously threatened to revoke AGOA benefits over Pretoria’s pro-Russia stance; tariffs could accelerate that risk.
· Kenya – A key apparel exporter to the U.S. under AGOA, Kenya’s textile industry employs 50,000 workers. Tariffs could wipe out jobs and deter investment in its nascent manufacturing hubs.
· Ethiopia – Already suspended from AGOA in 2022 over human rights concerns, further U.S. trade restrictions could stifle its industrial ambitions.
China’s shadow
Trump’s tariffs may inadvertently push Africa deeper into China’s economic orbit. Beijing has already positioned itself as an alternative partner, offering infrastructure loans, trade deals, and political backing. If the U.S. turns protectionist, African nations—desperate for investment—may have little choice but to embrace China, despite concerns over debt traps and unfair contracts.
A silver lining?
Not all consequences are negative. Some analysts argue that Trump’s policies could force African leaders to:
· Diversify economies – Over-reliance on oil (Nigeria) or minerals (DRC) has long been a weakness. Tariffs might accelerate moves toward local manufacturing and regional trade.
· Strengthen the AfCFTA – The African Continental Free Trade Area aims to boost intra-African commerce. U.S. trade barriers could provide impetus for African nations to trade more among themselves.
Conclusion: A dangerous gamble
Trump’s reciprocal tariffs are a gamble—one that could backfire on both the U.S. and Africa. While intended to protect American jobs, they risk destabilising African economies, pushing them toward rival powers, and undermining decades of U.S. trade diplomacy. For Nigeria, already teetering on the edge of an economic crisis, this could be the shock that tips it over.
The question is whether Washington will see Africa’s strategic value before it’s too late—or whether, in the name of reciprocity, it will sacrifice long-term influence for short-term protectionism.
