The continuing death spiral of Australian opposition parties

In part 1, Crikey began its breakdown of the sorry state of Australian opposition parties — the electoral wipeouts, the public recriminations, and the open disunity. Here we look at some of the concrete effects of this internal dysfunction.

Step 5: Unstable leadership

The leadership of the WA Liberals has changed six times since 2017. NSW Labor had eight leaders (including interims) between 2011 and 2021. Tasmanian Labor, meanwhile, faced the opposite problem. Tasmanian Labor leader David O’Byrne had to resign after just three weeks when decade-old sexual harassment allegations were made public, meaning Rebecca White was returned to a role she’d vacated just weeks earlier. In 2024, after the party’s state administrative committee ruled out the possibility of Labor governing in minority — guaranteeing Labor a fourth consecutive loss and a third under White — she resigned again.

When John Pesutto was replaced as Victorian Liberal leader by Brad Battin, after his long, messy legal battle with now-readmitted Liberal party first-termer Moira Deeming, it was the party’s fourth change of leadership since it was last in office. Most tragicomic was the interregnum overseen by Michael O’Brien, sandwiched between Matthew Guy’s two stints. O’Brien survived a spill in March 2021, one that had been fairly openly planned in the nation’s papers since the previous August, and hilariously only didn’t suffer another that July because of COVID-era health restrictions banning large gatherings at Parliament House.

Current leader Battin, for his part, continues to be trapped by the schism between the factions supporting Deeming and Pesutto.

Further, knitting together support from a reduced (and, as time in opposition drags on, increasingly inexperienced) pool of talent means a leader can’t afford to be too choosy when putting together a frontbench.

Which contributes to…

Step 6: No ability to form serious policy alternatives

Over 2020 and 2021, Melbourne spent as much time locked down as any other city in the world, a pregnant woman was raided by the cops on account of a Facebook post, and the state Labor government was hit with a series of grubby revelations at the Independent Broad-based Anti-corruption Commission. Throughout this time, the Liberals’ loudest contribution to the public square involved calling then premier Dan Andrews a “friendless loser”, making anatomical art out of doughnuts, and press releases based on online conspiracy theories about Andrews’ serious back injury in March 2021.

Meanwhile, after being solidly defeated in 2018 — with a great deal of help from vengeful gaming interests — Tasmanian Labor promptly abandoned its policy to remove poker machines from pubs and clubs. The handbrake on minimising gambling harm in the state has remained firmly in place ever since.

With diminished policy-making resources, it may suit a leader to avoid particularly forensic media scrutiny and try to ensure their public image is crafted in friendlier surrounds. Take Peter Dutton, who appeared on Sky News more times than he faced the ABC and Canberra press gallery combined in his time as federal opposition leader. Easier in the short term, it leaves a politician out of practice explaining or defending policy.

And then, before you know it, it’s time to prepare for another election…

Step 7: Campaign infrastructure wiped out

During the federal election in 2022, West Australian experts described to Crikey the effect of the state-level 2021 wipeout on the Liberal Party’s campaigning ground game.

“Campaigns are effectively run by professional staffers in politicians’ offices,” senior lecturer in politics and international relations at Notre Dame University, Martin Drum, said. “Paid staffers work on volunteer coordinating, media messaging, advertising strategy, social media. So that core of the campaign has been ripped out. The Liberal Party has two lower house MPs at state level — and one of those is in Busselton. So that’s one metropolitan seat where they would usually have, say, 30.”

Which leads to…

Step 8: Inept campaigns

Everything we’ve discussed — an above-average number of weirdos, limited talent pools, diminished infrastructure, public disunity, neutered leadership — clusters together and catches fire under the magnifying glass of an election campaign. Inadequately vetted candidates have to quit or are suddenly dumped, often making factional cleaves even more public.

Policies are adopted and discarded. Candidates in key seats don’t seem to know their lines. The leader can’t keep internal division under wraps, and media speculation about who might do a better job never seems to cease. The pressure starts to show. As a result, the opposition is rarely, if ever, able to set the terms of debate for the coming poll.

The incumbent merely needs to stay disciplined, avoid any major gaffes, offer voters the odd bribe and let the risk of voting for the opposition speak for itself.

Which leads to…

Step 9/Step 1: Electoral wipeout(s)

To quote Bob Dylan, “when you think you’ve lost everything, you’ll find out you can always lose a little more”. In politics, there is always further to fall.

As we alluded to above, the 2022 state election in Victoria followed several years of hardly ideal governance, not to mention some of the most openly partisan election reporting the country has ever seen. In this context, the Victorian Liberals managed to perform even worse than four years earlier, losing another two seats. Thanks to the Nationals, the Coalition gained a seat, which was cancelled out regardless by the same improvement for Labor’s representation.

In Western Australia, the party expected the modest success of getting enough of a swing to return the Liberals to double figures in the lower house. It was a low bar, and the party proceeded to limbo straight under it.

And then the leader resigns (assuming their colleagues or the electorate gives them the option). The public blood-letting begins. New quarrels emerge for the new leadership. The snake coils, sinks its fangs into its tail, and the cycle starts over.