Tasmania is in full political chaos, with a vote of no confidence in Liberal Premier Jeremy Rockliff likely to pass by the end of today. What will happen, and how did we end up here?
What happened in Tasmania this week?
On Tuesday, Labor opposition leader Dean Winter challenged the crossbench to support a no-confidence motion against Rockliff. Winter claimed last week’s state budget, which forecast ballooning debt and deficits, had forced his hand.
“I just could not tolerate allowing this mess to continue … I wish I could stand here and say everything is fine, but I owe Tasmanians more than that,” Winter said.
Rockliff replied by calling Winter a “wrecker” and said he’d continue to fight to stay in the top job, while conceding the vote was likely to succeed.
Apart from the dire state of the budget, Winter also raised concerns about the proposed sale of public assets and the government’s inability to deliver major projects.
What would Labor do differently?
According to Hobart-based political analyst Kevin Bonham, there is not a clear answer to that question.
“Labor is complaining about the management of the budget, and asset sales are one of the solutions the government is seeking — but Labor doesn’t support that,” Bonham told Crikey.
“So it’s not clear what Labor’s alternative is. But there are clearly genuine public concerns about this government.”
What’s the state of play in the Tasmanian Parliament?
The state parliament’s lower house has 35 seats, 14 of which are held by the Liberals. Labor has 10 seats, the Greens and independents five each, and the Jacqui Lambie Network has one seat.
Rockliff secured the support of three JLN members to form government following the 2024 state election. Since then, two of those MPs have been expelled from the party and sit as independents.
Labor did not try to negotiate with the minor parties and independents to form government last year. Instead, the leader Rebecca White conceded defeat and resigned.
What happens if the no confidence motion passes?
According to Bonham, there would be three possible outcomes. Rockliff could resign, and if the state’s governor is satisfied that the government can find someone else to take the lead, the Liberals could maintain power. Another possibility is that the premier resigns and the governor calls a snap election. A third, less likely scenario is that Rockliff doesn’t resign and essentially ignores the vote.
“If the premier goes to the governor and says, ‘Look, I’ve been rolled by this no confidence motion, but nobody has the support of the parliament and we should have another election,’ then it’s up to the governor to test that by trying to ding someone who would have the support of parliament,” Bonham said.
“They could be Liberal, Labor or someone else, even a cross-bencher. At this stage of the term, the governor should be on the side of trying to find something that might be workable, rather than having an election after only one year when the Parliament is nowhere near exhausted.
“There is some talk about the premier asking the governor to just ignore the outcome and hope it will all blow over. But that would normally only happen when a government is short of a seat because someone is away or there is a vacancy. You really have to have a concrete path to restore confidence, and if this motion passes, [the third scenario] doesn’t look likely — it seems the Greens, Labor and the crossbenchers are set on removing the premier.”
If Rockliff resigns, who could take over as Liberal leader?
Several names have been mentioned as possible successors. As The Australian reported, those include “wily conservative Eric Abetz, dour treasurer Guy Barnett [and] ambitious youngster Felix Ellis”.
“Under normal circumstances, I would say Barnett would be most likely, but the problem is that he is very heavily tied to this budget,” Bonham said. “It’s not clear if any of these people are actually going to put up their hand and say they’re willing to take over.”
When will we know the outcome?
The Tasmanian Parliament has its final sitting day of the week today. Next week, budget estimates will be held.
“I would think that the MPs will get through their speeches at some stage today, assuming there is not some sort of surprise happening. Roughly half of them have already spoken, and they get 20 minutes each,” Bonham said. “So I would expect it to finish sometime by the end of today.”
What’s going on in the governor’s office?
Governor Barbara Baker happens to be out of state this week, leaving the reins to Chief Justice Christopher Shanahan. Depending on the timing, it could be up to him to sort the mess out.
What does this have to do with the stadium plans?
In modern Tasmanian politics, the debate over the proposed Macquarie Point Stadium is never far from politicians’ minds. Liberals and Labor both support the proposal, but either party would have to secure the support of at least two upper house crossbenchers to pass legislation to advance the project.
“If Labor actually does form government after this, then the tension will be that some of the people who are bringing Rockliff down are doing so for unrelated reasons, including anger about the stadium plans,” Bonham said. “It’s a major thing hanging over this parliament, and there are some MPs who think that if this motion gets up, or if we go to another election, the stadium is automatically dead. We’ll see about that.”
Winter has reiterated his party’s support for the stadium plan, but the no confidence motion could still impact the proposal by blowing up the deadline for a decision. The stadium would have to be ready by the 2029 AFL season in order for Tasmania to be able to compete.