Tasmanian election a referendum on 15-month Liberal government

The good people of Tasmania are heading to the polls for an early state election on July 19, after just 15 months of a Liberal minority government. Last time, I was fresh to the state and more than a little bewildered by the Hare-Clark voting system and the intensely dynastic nature of Tasmanian politics. This time around, I’m match-ready (though I’ll never not be a mainlander in the eyes of Tasmanians, and that is entirely fair).

On June 5, Opposition Leader Dean Winter successfully moved a vote of no-confidence against Liberal Premier Jeremy Rockliff, with the support of the Greens and three independents. The catalyst was the state budget presented by Treasurer Guy Barnett, which forecast a huge deficit for the current financial year and ballooning debt going forward. The numbers are tricky in Tassie, with a population of 570,000 that skews older and has a lower proportion of people in the prime “working years” of 20-44 than the rest of the country. Education levels are lower and health needs are higher than in the other states. The maths ain’t mathing.

Although many are understandably angry at being sent back to the polls by Winter, this budget was so bad his hands were effectively tied. Whether he brought a no-confidence motion or decided that Labor would not support the budget, either way the government would likely end up dissolved.

So, rather than evaluating a term of government, this election is about what has changed in the past 15 months.

Already, Rockliff has walked back the Liberals’ plan to privatise state assets, saying “there will be no privatisation under the Tasmanian Liberal government”. He’s taken the reversal a step further, saying the Liberals would introduce legislation to require a two-thirds majority to approve the sale of any state asset.

Given that planned privatisation was just included in his budget last week, will voters see this as proof that the party has bad economic ideas or a sign that it is listening and willing to adapt?

There’s been key changes on the Labor side too. The party went to the 2024 election under then leader Rebecca White, who retained her seat but resigned from leadership and then state politics. Her unpopularity in state politics was complicated, as she went on to win the federal seat of Lyons, transforming a marginal Labor seat to a safe one with a whopping 10.7% swing in her favour.

Under new leader Winter, Labor has changed its position on the controversial AFL stadium — it ran against the project in 2024 but now supports it, with Winter even writing a letter to AFL boss Andrew Dillon to reassert Labor’s commitment. It’s an interesting move as polling from the Liberal-affiliated EMRS showing the stadium is broadly unpopular with the public, despite very vocal support from a minority.

But arguably the biggest recent change in Tasmanian politics is the size of the lower house, up to 35 seats (from 25) at the previous election. Under the state’s Hare-Clark proportional voting system (similar to federal Senate elections, where seats are awarded based on the proportion of the total vote a party or candidate wins), the presence of the major parties in the large house has been diluted.

In 2024, the additional 10 seats saw the election of three more Greens MPs (for a total of five); two more independents (total of three); and three new Jacqui Lambie Network MPs (who are now also independents as the party has disbanded).

The Liberals’ vote percentage has dropped from 50% in 2018 to 36.7% in 2024, and Labor is also down from 32.6% to 29%. Of those 10 additional seats up for grabs, they only earned one each.

But while some things change, some stay the same. Both leaders say they want to govern in majority (of course you’d be mad not to say this at the outset of an election). Winter has repeatedly said he will not work with the Greens to form a minority government (now where have I heard that before?) If Tasmanian Labor can ride the wave of federal Labor’s success and pick up a few more seats, it’s possible Winter could keep that promise by working with a few independents to form minority government. It’s worth noting that when both majors fell short of majority in 2024, Labor did not attempt to negotiate with the crossbench at all.

Either party achieving an outright majority seems, at this stage, very optimistic. Labor would have to win eight more seats, while the Liberals would need four more. The most recent EMRS voting intention poll from mid-May has the Libs down five points and indies up five points, with all others more or less flat.

In the meantime, there is already movement in the field of candidates. Labor’s Michelle O’Byrne is retiring after a 25-year political career. Notably, as speaker she broke the deadlock to support the no-confidence motion, in what some consider to be a breach of the role’s conventional neutrality. Independent Peter George has announced he’ll run for the state seat of Franklin, after an impressive tilt at the federal seat in May, while Liberal Bridget Archer will do the same in Bass after losing her spot in federal parliament.

It adds up to what will be a strange five-week election campaign. Spare a thought for the 75,000-odd voters who will now be heading to the polls for the fourth time in 15 months.