“The Coalition is set to win back marginal seats in NSW and Queensland but has yet to make up enough ground against Labor nationally to hold on to government as the election campaign enters its final week.”
That’s how The Australian began an article on May 13, 2019 — the Monday before the election — reporting a Newspoll that showed Labor with a 51% lead against the Coalition’s 49%.
The election result ended up being essentially the opposite — the Coalition’s final two-party preferred vote was 51.5%, while Labor’s was 48.5%.
Well, it’s the Monday before the election again, and this time the latest Newspoll shows Labor with 52% of the two-party preferred vote. So what should we make of this?
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“The Liberals could point at the NewsPoll today and say, ‘If they’re as wrong as they were in 2019, we’re actually ahead 52-48’,” said William Bowe, publisher of the election analysis website The Poll Bludger. “But it could also be the other way around, they could be behind 55-45.”
“The problem in 2019 was that all the polls were saying the same thing, and they were all herding to Newspoll. No-one wanted to be different from Newspoll, and it got it wrong. Everyone changed their methodology, but they were following a leader that was wrong,” Bowe told Crikey.
“That isn’t happening this time — there is a fair bit of variance in the polls this time, which is good. When the polls are all saying the same thing, that’s when you start to worry.”
Bowe said that even if the polls weren’t “herding”, there could be systemic errors at play.
“If you look at the Freshwater Strategy poll from last week, it had it at 50-50, with a much higher Coalition vote than everyone else. It could be that they’re the ones who have it right,” Bowe said.
Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has been eager to portray himself as a potential winner, despite his bleak poll numbers for much of the campaign.
“I think this election is going to be decided this week. I think [Albanese’s] taking it for granted. I think there is a lot of anger in the suburbs … I do believe that we can form a majority government,” he said recently, adding there were a “lot of quiet Australians” ready to back him.
Bowe said adopting such an optimistic stance was a way for Dutton to boost morale among Coalition volunteers.
“The Coalition is behaving as if they wish the polls were wrong — the perception Dutton is going to lose is damaging to him, and I think they’re concerned about lack of morale and that they aren’t going to be able to get people out and working on election day,” he said.
In 2022, the Newspoll published a week from the election had Labor at 54% of two-party preferred votes. Anthony Albanese’s party ended up with about 52% on election day.
Do you trust the polls in 2025?
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