Scott Morrison has told Australians not to worry about the future of the AUKUS submarine pact, despite the Pentagon reviewing it to ensure the agreement complies with Donald Trump’s “America First agenda“.
In a LinkedIn post on Thursday morning, the ex-prime minister and AUKUS architect said the US review, revealed overnight, was “well within its remit” and “should not be over interpreted”.
“The focus of the review is not new and rightly centres on US submarine production rates. This is a known and genuine challenge for the US industrial base,” Morrison wrote. “This goes directly to the maintenance and expansion of the US submarine fleet, and it’s an area where Australia is already uniquely contributing under AUKUS Pillar I. Importantly, this is also a challenge the Trump Administration is committed to addressing.”
The US has long struggled to build enough submarines for its own needs, and some decision-makers in Washington have warned that selling boats to Australia would further strain the US supply.
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The country aims to build two Virginia-class submarines per year, but has recently averaged just above one new vessel per year. This means the US fleet would be reduced if Australia is allowed to buy a pair of second-hand submarines by the beginning of the next decade, and a fresh one by the end of the 2030s.
Australia is indeed contributing to the expansion of the US fleet — the total cost to the budget over the forward estimates was calculated in March of this year to be about $18 billion over the next four years. Defence Minister Richard Marles made good on Australia’s promise to hand over money to the US earlier this year, giving his US counterpart Pete Hegseth a cheque worth $800 million.
But it’s far from clear whether our cash will be enough to speed up the building of the submarines.
An unnamed US defence official told ABC News overnight that Washington expects Australia to significantly boost its defence spending, including to ensure that “allies step up fully to do their part for collective defence, and that the defence industrial base is meeting our needs”.
Under Secretary of Defence for Policy Elbridge Colby, who is leading the review, posted on social media last year that he was an AUKUS “agnostic” — and that while it was a “great” idea “in principle”, he’s been “very skeptical in practice”.
Morrison, whose government laid the groundwork for AUKUS and took part in announcing the project in 2021, said the “bipartisan and institutional support” expressed in Washington and London at the time was “important to secure” and that the “foundation matters”.
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“As the Pentagon leads this review, the depth of US-Australia engagement, the professionalism of our collaboration, and the consistent backing from Secretary Hegseth, as reaffirmed in his discussions with Minister Marles, remain reasons for continued confidence,” Morrison wrote.
“Now is the time for Australia to make the case again. We have a good case to make in both our own interests and those of our AUKUS partners, especially in the US.”
President Donald Trump, whom Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is expected to huddle with next week on the sidelines of the G7 summit in Canada, still hasn’t made any public comments in support of AUKUS.
Asked in February by a UK reporter for his thoughts on AUKUS, Trump replied: “What does that mean?”
Still, Marles joined Morrison in projecting confidence about the project.
“The meetings that we’ve had with the United States have been very positive in respect of AUKUS … that dates back to my most recent meeting with Pete Hegseth in Singapore,” Marles told ABC Radio, adding he was “very confident [AUKUS] is going to happen”.