by Calculated Risk on 6/16/2025 07:11:00 PM
While there’s been no shortage of political and geopolitical headlines over the past 2 business days, there hasn’t been much by way of inspiration for the bond market. Bonds (and, thus, rates) have moved nonetheless.
…
Tomorrow’s Retail Sales data is capable of causing volatility in either direction, depending on the outcome. Then on Wednesday, we’ll hear from the Fed. While they will not be cutting rates at this meeting, they will be updating their rate outlook–something that frequently gets the market’s attention. [30 year fixed 6.91%]
emphasis added
Tuesday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Retail sales for May is scheduled to be released. The consensus is for a 0.5% decrease in retail sales.
• At 9:15 AM, The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for May. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to be unchanged at 77.7%.
• At 10:00 AM, The June NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 36, up from 34 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.