by Calculated Risk on 7/30/2025 08:30:00 AM
From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 2nd Quarter 2025 (Advance Estimate)
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.0 percent in the second quarter of 2025 (April, May, and June), according to the advance estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 0.5 percent.
The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected a decrease in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and an increase in consumer spending. These movements were partly offset by decreases in investment and exports. …
Compared to the first quarter, the upturn in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected a downturn in imports and an acceleration in consumer spending that were partly offset by a downturn in investment.
Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, the sum of consumer spending and gross private fixed investment, increased 1.2 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 1.9 percent in the first quarter.
The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.9 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 3.4 percent in the first quarter. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 2.1 percent, compared with an increase of 3.7 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 2.5 percent, compared with an increase of 3.5 percent.
emphasis added
PCE increased at a 1.4% annual rate, and residential investment decreased at a 4.6% rate. The advance Q2 GDP report, with 3.0% annualized increase, was above expectations.
I’ll have more later …
