by Calculated Risk on 6/06/2025 05:00:00 PM
From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) AAR Data Center. Graph and excerpts reprinted with permission.
Rail freight volumes in May 2025 tell a story of an
industry navigating crosscurrents. On one side, carload
traffic showed solid growth, reflecting resilience in key
sectors of the domestic economy. On the other,
intermodal container volumes barely eked out a gain,
hinting at softening global trade and cautious
consumer demand. Mixed economic signals – from
cooling manufacturing output to consumers pulling
back on goods purchases – underscore the uncertainty
facing railroads. Recent data on factory activity,
consumer spending, and housing all paint a cautionary
picture for the coming months, even as the labor
market remains a relative bright spot.Total U.S. rail carloads rose 5.9% in May 2025
compared with a year ago (about 50,000 extra
carloads), a slight step down from April’s 6.2% growth.
Year-to-date carloads through May were up 2.5%
versus the same period in 2024.
emphasis added
By contrast, intermodal volume (containers and
trailers) barely grew, rising only 0.6% in May year
over-year (around +6,200 units). This marks the 21st
consecutive month of year-over-year intermodal gains, but
notably it’s the weakest percentage increase of that entire
streak. In fact, average weekly intermodal loadings in May
(about 259,400 units) were the lowest in a year and
essentially equal to the 10-year May average.Tracking with declines in port activity and lower import
volumes, rail traffic saw its first non-holiday intermodal
declines since September 2023 to end the month with
volumes falling ~1.5%–1.8% compared to the same weeks a
year ago. Time will tell if this two-week trend continues or
if shippers and retailers are becoming more cautious,