by Calculated Risk on 4/06/2025 08:56:00 AM
From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) AAR Data Center. Graph and excerpts reprinted with permission.
Recent changes in U.S. trade policy represent a notable
shift from previous approaches. These developments
will affect multiple sectors, including freight rail, where
global trade accounts for approximately 38% of unit
volume and 37% of total revenue. Even in stable times,
railroads must constantly adjust to evolving economic
conditions; they are operationally equipped to adapt to
this latest round of policy change as well.At present, rail traffic is holding steady. While some
“soft” economic indicators, such as consumer
confidence, have weakened in recent months, many
“hard” economic metrics—including job gains,
unemployment, and consumer spending—remain
resilient. That continued strength has supported
modest gains in rail volumes. That said, manufacturing
remains mired in a prolonged period of weakness,
limiting growth in several carload categories.
emphasis added
This graph from the AAR shows their index (“The AAR’s Freight Rail Index (FRI) is defined as intermodal plus carloads excluding coal and grain. We exclude coal and grain because their carloads tend to rise or fall for reasons that have little to do with what’s going on in the broader economy.”)
U.S. railroads originated 906,253 total carloads in
March 2025, up 4.5% (39,342 carloads) over last
March and the third year-over-year increase in total
carloads over the past 15 months. Total carloads
averaged 226,563 in March 2025, the most in six
months and the most for March since 2022.
…
U.S. railroads also originated 1.10 million containers and trailers in March 2025, up 8.0% (82,151 units) over
March 2024 and intermodal’s 19th consecutive year-over-year gain.