No hung parliament… this time

In the end, the House was not even a little bit hung.

It was mildly embarrassing for me, having spent the past year writing a column about the prospective players in a potential hung parliament.

Such a parliament was always going to rely on a close race between the major parties, in which neither could reach a majority. The chances of that narrowed significantly in the final weeks, as it became apparent the Coalition was totally unelectable.

But the fact there were no crossbench gains — and several losses — in this landslide Labor win leaves hung parliament watchers in a muddle. With donation law changes set to make it harder for independents to compete, is this the end of the idea of minority government for the foreseeable future?

In short, no — though it will depend in part on the Libs returning to being a viable party.

At 12 seats, the new lower house crossbench remains impressive, though down on 2022’s record 16 — 19 following the defection of the Coalition’s Andrew Gee, Russell Broadbent, and Ian Goodenough (or 18 following the abolition of North Sydney). While Kooyong was a white-knuckle finish, Curtin, Mackellar, Wentworth and Fowler’s indies all received sophomore swings, joining Kennedy, Clark, Mayo, Indi, and Warringah as crossbench stalwarts. Gee comfortably retained Calare as an independent, taking Nats voters with him — a reminder that not all country folk are rusted on.

The losses are very Green — Adam Bandt, Max Chandler-Mather, and Stephen Bates account for half the fall, leaving just Elizabeth Watson-Brown. Zoe Daniel is the only “teal” loss (unless the funniest thing ever happens — I did say Tim Wilson’s return would be good content), while Broadbent and Goodenough’s seats were never really independent to begin with.

But what happened to all those potential gains?

While the “other” vote was up nationally, not one of the community independents I profiled in recent weeks succeeded in knocking off a major party MP, with top picks Alex Dyson and Caz Heise growing their primaries but barely moving the needle in Wannon and Cowper.

The Greens’ Samantha Ratnam received a swing in Wills, though nowhere near enough to get her over the line; Muslim Votes Matter and The Muslim Vote are rightfully celebrating their impact in target seats, where Labor faced swings to its primary, but no actual losses (though interesting things are happening in Calwell, where multiple independents did well).

There were many excruciatingly close races, however — races that, as Climate 200 convenor Simon Holmes à Court noted last week, would look very different but for a few hundred votes, and could look very different next time (though as he also noted, there are “no silver medals” in politics).

Fremantle and Bean had indies lose by a fraction of a percent, while Bradfield still hangs in the balance, with Liberal candidate Gisele Kapterian barely ahead of return independent Nicolette Boele (is it possible Boele may be about to lose her “shadow member” title?). Liberal-held Monash, Flinders, Fisher, Forrest, and Grey could’ve been similarly close, with indies just missing out on the final two — it’s possible some could have beaten the Lib in the 2CP, had Labor not run so hard.

For several hours there, it looked like community independent Jessie Price would win Bean off Labor, an upset few saw coming. It was a rollercoaster of a count, though Price conceded this week, having reduced David Smith’s 12.9% margin to just 0.2%.

“It does feel like we took a lot of people by surprise,” Price says, when asked if Bean was overlooked. “Being out and about listening to the community, we knew that there was a really strong mood for change. People from outside the electorate may not have been able to know that in the same way.”

Though she didn’t win, the local midwife believes there are lessons for Labor in this close call — and she’ll be sticking around as the Voices of Bean candidate to hold her MP to account. Price rejects arguments Smith’s primary barely dropped, noting Labor increased its primary nationally and yet “only held on by their fingernails here”. She’s critical of Labor flyers, clearly designed to look like Greens flyers, telling voters to put Labor second, contradicting the Greens’ actual how-to-vote card.

Price’s efforts, as well as those of Kate Hulett in Fremantle, will certainly have Labor MPs looking over their shoulders this term — a win in itself. Nothing like a near death experience to wake a politician up.

Speaking of which, Monique Ryan is breathing a sigh of relief after becoming the most marginal crossbencher — a service to Kate Chaney, who previously held that title, she jokes. Liberal candidate Amelia Hamer reduced the margin to just 0.5%, though Ryan believes she was also affected by the redistribution, which the AEC only finalised in October.

Between sign-stealing and secret properties, neurosurgeons and neo-Nazis, Kooyong was perhaps the craziest race in the country. Ryan, who by the end had AFP accompaniment, says this election was far more bruising than the last.

“2022 was joyous,” she says, noting her campaign had nothing to lose. “Whereas this time, it really felt like trench warfare. But someone said to me, what do you expect? This is the last flailings of a dinosaur that is dying, and people are going to get whacked in the process.”

It speaks to what often happens to first-term independents, with a defeated party throwing everything at trying to win back its seat.

“Everyone always said to me, they’ll come at you incredibly hard this time, and then if you hold, they’ll be easier from now on,” Ryan says. “You know, they basically resign themselves to it until you’re retired. That’s the truism. Unfortunately, I think I’m getting Josh [Frydenberg] in 2028.”

Despite the close shave, Ryan’s survival does make it seem more likely that she’ll hold on again — she had swings towards her in the old bits of Kooyong, and is looking forward to “getting to know” the new parts, expressing gratitude at being given another three years to prove the power of independence. She has, notably, outlived Peter Dutton’s prime ministerial ambitions, as she foresaw in one of the best question time clapbacks ever.

But it doesn’t change the fact we don’t have that hung parliament now, with a long three-year wait for another shot at a minority government.

Ryan and Price, a near-hold and a near-miss, make the same point when I put this to them.

“When Labor has increased their majority this election across the country, the crossbench becomes even more critical in holding the government to account,” says Price. “In the absence of a minority government, it really is on community to keep on standing up and making ourselves heard and pushing our representatives to have courage and vision on the issues that do matter to us.”

There may be no progressive balance of power in the House, but there will certainly be people both inside and outside parliament pushing the government to go harder.

And for some of them, that next election can’t come soon enough.