by Calculated Risk on 7/22/2025 11:33:00 AM
There are four remaining FOMC meetings this year: July, September, October and December. It is very unlikely that the FOMC will cut rates next week, but there are very different views on the rest of 2025.
First, from BofA:
With the u-rate rising more gradually in our new forecast and core PCE inflation likely to
reach 3% over the summer, we don’t think the Fed will be able to cut rates this year.
And from Goldman Sachs:
Starting in September, we expect the FOMC to deliver three consecutive 25bp cuts, provided inflation expectations remain in check amidst worries about Fed independence.
Currently, market participants expect rate cuts in September and December.