Olisa Agbakoba, a Maritime lawyer and senior advocate of Nigeria (SAN), is concerned about the inability of Nigeria to harness the abundant resources that the country is sitting on. He strongly believes that if the right things are done, the Federal Government’s annual budget could be up to ten times what it is today. Speaking with ZEBULON AGOMUO on the sidelines of the presentation of his document, ‘Governance and economic analysis and forecast 2025: To succeed Nigeria needs innovation and efficiency to create a ₦500 trillion budget for 2026/2027’, he urged the government to begin to plug all the necessary holes. Excerpts:
What do you think about the policy of President Donald Trump on tariffs which now tend to affect trade and cause a kind of revolution in the world?
Look, if you want to change things, you must prepare for chaos; disruptions. Have not heard the world disruptions before? That is what he is doing. It is called disruption. Don’t you want Nigeria to be disrupted? The only way Nigeria can change is through disruption. Are you happy that we have one Inspector General (IG) of police? Shouldn’t we have county police in say, Apapa, and other places? So, the only way things can work is by disruptions. No good policy; no good initiative comes easy because you have extractive industry for instance, those who benefit will be against it (any policy that tends to change things). Although I do not like Trump’s ways per se, but if he does anything that is of benefit to me, I will copy it; and the tariff move is the one I commend.
Looking at Trump tariffs on Nigeria’s export, what should be Nigeria’s appropriate response?
Whatever it is, is for Nigeria to decide because I am not privy to the fine points in the trade policy. All I know, from the commonsensical point of view, is that if I don’t produce anything; so, I don’t lose anything by saying if you want to come here, I put a tariff on you. In fact, in the American case, I think the Americans are even more susceptible to the tariff thing because retaliation can happen; that’s why I think we are in a stronger position. I don’t think it is about negotiation or retaliation; it is simply about protecting our self-interest.
Some people believe that Mr. President should officially hand over power to the vice president whenever he is travelling out of the country, which he does not do. Constitutionally, how correct is the president in not doing so?
Constitutionally, he ought to hand over power; that’s what the constitution says; but I understand that he is on a working visit to France. But if you ask me, these are things that I would say, given the experience going back to the time of Yar’Adua, I wouldn’t do things that would create suspicion or doubt or controversy. I would, if I were advising Mr. President, say, there is nothing wrong handing over power to the Vice President if he is staying two or three weeks. So, I agree with those that think he should hand over power to the Vice President.
The Sole Administrator in Rivers State disregarded the court order barring him from appointing sole administrators at the local governments. How does that sit constitutionally?
The issue of Rivers is very unfortunate; and I think it lends credence to what I say about the way Nigeria is structured. So, whether the Sole Administrator is right or wrong to make such appointments or even to spend beyond what he should spend being an emergency person is actually not a problem; but I understand what you are saying. But the problem is that Nigeria is running on a wrong constitutional framework. That is what I like to say. I want to see Nigeria disrupted. I don’t understand why every politician that comes accepts the need to politically configure Nigeria; restructure, devolve powers, but when they get there, they don’t do it. That’s what beats me. So, we need to have a major political revolution; it is the only way Nigeria will work. Nigeria can’t work with this pyramid of a country, where everything is centered at the base; this is why we have a situation where everyone is fighting for the power at the centre and you find Mr. Nyesom Wike, a PDP, in an APC government. That alone tells you about the contradictions. The last comment I will make on this is that if you ask the ordinary people in Rivers State, they have no interest in PDP or APC, they have interest in their health; in their schools (education of their children) and that is not happening and they are not happy with anybody. In fact, it is the Rivers’ example that typifies the Nigeria problem; where the leaders in power fail to understand the concerns of the people.
Read also: How Nigeria’s annual budget can hit N500trn, by Agbakoba
Lately, we have seen the Naira losing grip and sliding down. Many observers think that as long as the appreciation is not organic, the Naira cannot maintain appreciable level of stability against the dollar. What do you think is happening to the Naira?
In the short term you can use monetary policy to prop up the naira; the only way you can sustain this parity is to produce; and we are producing nothing except crude oil.
There is the optimism that the reforms will soon yield the desired fruits, but the reality on the street is that things are tough; how would the media sustain the preaching of a rosy future in the midst of hardships without the hungry man on the street seeing them (the media) as being complicit?
Exactly, that’s why I said we can see minimal result from the two basic controversial reforms of removal of the fuel subsidy and the devaluation of the naira. You know the way the Nigerian mind worked on the fuel subsidy was that it was for our benefit, but it wasn’t. It was only for the benefit of those who were importing petrol. In fact, all presidents of Nigeria were scared of removing fuel subsidy just like a British Prime Minister will be terrified to abolish the international Health Service. So, it must be given to Tinubu as a form of credit for taking that bold decision. Now, what he has to prove is whether his decision was correct, that’s the challenge.
What I can see is the removal of Nigeria’s hospital bed from the intensive care ward to the critical care ward, but it is still sick. That’s the point, but I am ready to say, yes, the medical doctors have declared that Nigeria is getting better, but it is nowhere near being well; that is the truth. Things have improved, but the guy on the street is not seeing it yet; he is not feeling enough if it. That has to be made clear.
How soon do you think the man on the street will begin to feel it?
It depends on the President, because initiatives reside on the table of the president of Nigeria.
He is the one who can take those critically, disruptive decisions. He has taken two critical decisions- the removal of subsidy and the devaluation of the naira. He should go ahead and equally take a critical decision in the oil and gas sector. Nigeria is losing a lot of money from the nation’s oil blocks. They created a joint venture (JVC) agreement, two partners are appointed (first of all, it is an insult for a sovereign nation to be in partnership with an oil company) then I tell you, first run the oil blocks and give me my own money and I have no idea of what you do and how much you make. So, the oil companies keep carting away money and are even telling us that we are owing then, and we keep paying while they are drilling away our forex. I can guarantee that if President Tinubu can change the structure of oil governance from contract oil to developmental oil things will change. It is contract oil today because they give all the oil wells to private people; they have to be taken back). The wealth in the ground belongs to us, not to oil companies- whether they are Nigerians or foreigners. The government has left a lot of money going into wrong channels. We need to mop up and bring in all the money. First, we need to do an audit; where do we have all these minerals that can change Nigeria’s story? The North central is number four in the whole world with critical minerals.
That is why I recommended to Mr. President that #500trillion economy is very possible. Our budget in 2026 can hit N500trillion if we do the right things. Some years ago, when our budget was only N2trillion, I said that from what I could see, we could do up to N10trillion; today, we are N50trillion. We have a lot of untapped resources scattered everywhere; we need to begin to pull then together. If things are done right, we will be hitting N100trillion now and keep growing. We are a blessed country, no earthquake; no volcano, no tsunami, no natural disaster, except crazy people governed by political leaders who are not interested in the people that they are governing.
You sound so convincing about the wealth that could accrue to the Federal purse if there are proper and urgent reforms in the Oil and Gas sector; could you please shed more light on it?
The oil and gas sector represents a significant opportunity for economic transformation. Nigeria stands at a critical crossroads in its economic development, with its vast oil and gas reserves presenting a unique opportunity for transformation through a shift from the existing ‘Contract Oil’ model to a ‘Development Oil’ approach.
The current governance framework, characterised by passive state participation through Joint Ventures and Production Sharing Contracts with International Oil Companies, has failed to translate Nigeria’s petroleum wealth into broad economic prosperity, leaving 133 million Nigerians in multidimensional poverty despite constitutional mandates that natural resources be used for citizens’ welfare. By implementing a ‘Development Oil’ model, Nigeria could potentially generate ₦85 trillion in additional value through strategic asset management, active state participation, value addition within the country, and enhanced local content development. This paradigm shift would position oil and gas resources not merely as commodities to be extracted and exported, but as strategic catalysts for comprehensive national development, aligning with constitutional obligations and addressing the resource curse that has plagued the nation. The current model effectively delegates Nigeria’s sovereign resource rights to foreign entities, creating a constitutional disconnect where the management of national assets benefits external parties rather than Nigerian citizens. Transitioning to Development Oil governance would involve reasserting state ownership, overhauling governance structures, establishing innovative funding mechanisms like a Sovereign Oil Fund guaranteed by oil reserves, and strengthening local content policies to ensure greater Nigerian participation throughout the value chain.
