The African Development Bank’s (AfDB) leadership transition marks more than a change at the top: it signals a transformative moment for Nigeria’s economic trajectory. As a founding member and the bank’s largest shareholder, Nigeria stands to benefit significantly from the AfDB’s leadership and ambitious new agenda: scaling annual investments from $10 billion to $100 billion. AfDB, Africa’s largest development financial institution with $318 billion in capital, is owned by 54 African countries and G7 nations, including the US and Japan.
This bold vision prioritises sustainable infrastructure, energy access, inclusive agriculture, and enhanced regional trade under the AfCFTA. For Nigeria, it offers a vital opportunity to attract financing, expand market access, and recalibrate development priorities. The key question is no longer if this matters but how Nigeria will respond.
Leadership change at AfDB
At the annual general meeting of the bank in Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire, between 26th and 30th May 2025, Mr Sidi Ould Tah of Mauritania was elected as the ninth president of the African Development Bank (AfDB) group to succeed Nigeria’s Akinwunmi Adesina, whose second term of five years ends on 31st August, 2025. His election followed votes by the bank’s group of governors, which comprises all economy and finance ministers and central bank governors from the bank’s 81 member countries, including regional and non-regional members.
It is instructive to note that, according to the bank’s electoral rule, a candidate must receive more than 50.01 percent of the vote from all members. Tah will begin his first five-year tenure on September 1 this year. He is tasked with driving financial inclusion, economic development, and sustainable investment in Africa.
A former Minister of Finance and Economic Affairs in Mauritania, Tah has over 35 years of experience in international and African finance and most recently served as the president of the Arab Bank for Economic Development in Africa (BADEA), where he was able to introduce significant structural transformation and saw its balance sheet quadrupling and its credit rating rising to AA.
Read also: Mauritania’s Tah clinches AfDB presidency after landslide victory
Thus, the change in leadership comes at a time of growing pressure on African institutions to respond more effectively to the range of multidimensional issues facing the continent. Tah inherits a strong institution that continues to enjoy investor confidence thanks to its AAA rating. But he also faces major challenges, chief among them raising funds, starting with the 17th replenishment of the African Development Fund (ADF). More so, the new leadership has a significant role to play in addressing the continent’s annual financing gap for structural transformation pegged at more than $400 billion, or nearly 14 percent of the continent’s projected GDP by 2030.
This effort has become even more urgent due to the United States’ pullback (Washington cutting about $555 million in funding to AfDB and its African Development Fund, which offers low-priced financing to the continent’s poor nations) under the Trump administration.
AfDB’s role in Africa
The bank plays a central role in Africa’s development architecture, providing financing and technical assistance to spur inclusive growth and reduce poverty across the continent. Founded in 1964 as a group, the AfDB group comprises three (3) entities: the African Development Bank (ADB), the African Development Fund (ADF), and the Nigerian Trust Fund, with membership spanning 54 African countries and 27 non-African states.
As a pan-African institution with a mandate to promote sustainable economic development, the AfDB group finances large-scale infrastructure, supports policy reforms, and fosters regional integration. Over the last three decades, the bank has expanded its footprint, becoming a vital partner for national governments seeking to bridge gaps in power, agriculture, transport, and industrialisation.
Under the outgoing leadership of Dr Akinwunmi Adesina, the bank championed the “High 5” development priorities, focusing on energy access, food security, industrialisation, regional integration, and quality of life. Notable achievements include the Desert-to-Power initiatives in 11 countries across the Sahelian belt, support for the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), and a robust COVID-19 response facility. However, the institution also faced scrutiny over governance practices and pressure to navigate rising debt vulnerabilities in member countries.
Nigeria, as the biggest shareholder in the bank and a founding member, has long benefitted from its partnership. Flagship projects such as the Nigeria Electrification Project and the Transmission Expansion Programme underscore the relationship alongside significant funding in agriculture, roads, and SME financing – critical areas for the nation’s socio-economic development.
Key areas of impact for Nigeria.
Infrastructure & energy
According to the World Bank, Nigeria’s infrastructure deficit is massive, requiring an estimated $3 trillion over 30 years. The AfDB has been instrumental in funding key projects, including the $200 million Nigeria Electrification Project, which aims to provide 500,000 solar connections by 2025.
Additionally, the Lagos-Abidjan Corridor, a $15.6 billion initiative, promises to boost regional trade by improving transport links.
Continued AfDB support in energy (where 43% of Nigerians lack electricity access) and rural development could bridge gaps in logistics and productivity, unlocking 5–7 percent annual GDP growth potential.
Read also: Akinwumi Adesina bows out as president of AfDB
Private sector access to capital: Fuelling SMEs and innovation
Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) contribute 48 percent of Nigeria’s GDP yet face a $158 billion financing gap, according to the International Financial Corporation (IFC). Under new leadership, the AfDB could expand initiatives like the $500 million Affirmative Finance for Women in Africa (AFWA), which supports female entrepreneurs.
Nigerian startups—particularly in fintech (which attracted $2.2 billion in funding in 2024) and agribusiness—stand to benefit from enhanced risk-sharing facilities and venture capital partnerships. If the AfDB prioritises blended finance models, Nigeria’s tech ecosystem could double its contribution to GDP by 2030.
Policy influence & Regional integration
As the AfDB’s largest shareholder, Nigeria is poised to shape policies that advance the AfCFTA. The Bank’s $2.7 billion investment in cross-border infrastructure (2023–2025) aligns with Nigeria’s push to reduce trade barriers.
By leveraging its influence, Nigeria could champion reforms in customs harmonisation and digital trade, potentially increasing intra-African trade by $35 billion annually.
Governance & transparency
Concerns persist over mismanagement of development funds, with Nigeria ranking 140th in Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index (2024). The AfDB’s new leadership must enforce stricter oversight, particularly for projects like the $1 billion Nigeria Transmission Expansion Program. Transparent procurement and real-time auditing could improve loan utilisation, ensuring Nigeria meets its National Development Plan (2021–2025) targets without debt distress.
With strategic AfDB backing, Nigeria can transform its infrastructure gaps, entrepreneurial potential, and regional clout into tangible growth—provided governance reforms keep pace.
Final thought
Nigeria’s rising debt, now about 40 percent of GDP, underscores the risk of over-reliance on multilateral loans—borrowed funds must drive tangible growth, not prolong stagnation. Despite AfDB financing nearly $2 billion in flagship projects across power, transport, and SMEs, weak project delivery, averaging about 60 percent on-time completion, and tight donor conditionalities (e.g., procurement reforms) could limit impact.
On the upside, Nigeria can harness the leadership change at AfDB to align priorities: pivoting towards industrial value chains, energy transition, and youth-driven entrepreneurship. By engaging strategically, Abuja can use fresh AfDB mandates as levers to recalibrate its development path—balancing debt prudence with structural investments that unlock sustainable, inclusive growth.
