by Calculated Risk on 5/27/2025 09:00:00 AM
S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for March (“March” is a 3-month average of January, February and March closing prices).
This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.
From S&P S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Records 3.4% Annual Gain in March 2025
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census
divisions, reported a 3.4% annual return for March, down from a 4% annual gain in the previous month.
The 10-City Composite saw an annual increase of 4.8%, down from a 5.2% annual increase in the
previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 4.1%, down from a 4.5%
increase in the previous month. New York again reported the highest annual gain among the 20 cities
with an 8% increase in March, followed by Chicago and Cleveland with annual increases of 6.5% and
5.9%, respectively. Tampa posted the lowest return, falling 2.2%.
…
The pre-seasonally adjusted U.S. National, 10-City Composite, and 20-City Composite Indices saw
slight upward trends in March, posting gains of 0.8%, 1.2%, and 1.1%, respectively.After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a decrease of -0.3%. The 10-City Composite
Index recorded a 0.01% increase and the 20-City Composite Index presented a -0.1% decrease.“Home price growth continued to decelerate on an annual basis in March, even as the market
experienced its strongest monthly gains so far in 2025,” said Nicholas Godec, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, Head
of Fixed Income Tradables & Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “This divergence between
slowing year-over-year appreciation and renewed spring momentum highlighted how the housing
market shifted from mere resilience to a broader seasonal recovery. Limited supply and steady demand
drove prices higher across most metropolitan areas, despite affordability challenges remaining firmly in
place.”
emphasis added
The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).
The Composite 10 index was up 0.01% in March (SA). The Composite 20 index was down 0.1% (SA) in March.
The National index was down 0.3% (SA) in March.
The Composite 10 NSA was up 4.8% year-over-year. The Composite 20 NSA was up 4.1% year-over-year.
The National index NSA was up 3.4% year-over-year.
Annual price changes were lower than expectations. I’ll have more later.