by Calculated Risk on 6/30/2025 08:11:00 AM
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.3% week-over-week.
Inventory is now up 33.1% from the seasonal bottom in January and is increasing. Usually, inventory is up about 20% from the seasonal low by this week in the year. So, 2025 is seeing a larger than normal pickup in inventory.
The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.
The red line is for 2025. The black line is for 2019.
Inventory was up 28.7% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 30.7%), and down 14.1% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 13.2%).
This is the highest level since November 2019.
For 2019, this was the week inventory peaked for the year (then moved sideways for several months), so any further increase this year will close to gap to 2019. It now appears inventory will be close to 2019 levels towards the end of 2025.
As of June 27th, inventory was at 831 thousand (7-day average), compared to 829 thousand the prior week.