Heavy Truck Sales Down 8% YoY in May

by Calculated Risk on 6/04/2025 10:51:00 AM

This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the May 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 446 thousand.

Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009. Then heavy truck sales increased to a new record high of 570 thousand SAAR in April 2019.

Heavy Truck Sales Click on graph for larger image.

Note: “Heavy trucks – trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight.”

Heavy truck sales declined sharply at the beginning of the pandemic, falling to a low of 288 thousand SAAR in May 2020.

Heavy truck sales were at 446 thousand SAAR in May, down from 457 thousand in April, and down 7.9% from 484 thousand SAAR in May 2024.

Year-to-date (NSA) sales are down 4.6%.

Usually, heavy truck sales decline sharply prior to a recession and sales were OK in May.

As I mentioned yesterday, light vehicle sales declined in May to 15.65 million SAAR. We are starting to see some payback from the “beat the tariffs” surge in March and April.

The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.