Yes, WHEN is the question. You can miss a lot of returns by listening to the doomsayers. There are always perpetual bears. Of course the market will reset at some point, this is entirely normal. But if you used just PE valuation you would have missed that last couple of years in the US. These are periods you really need to take advantage of before the crappy years.
Most investors you just buy, hold and hope which is okay depending your investment horizon. The whole Super Industry does this.
I suggest you just need a plan if you have a decent allocation to equities. The plan includes both reducing exposure and/or hedging.
I can’t pick the top , but the goal is not to suffer a catastrophic drawdown. There are some tools out there to help.
i deliberately avoided the US ( even sold the dual-listed stocks i acquired via take-over activity )
returns is one thing and risk is the counter-balance , now traders looking at holding mostly under one year time-frames rely on liquidity and agility to save them from the worst of outcomes
AND your entry-point in a stock is a big factor , say you are up 10x , do you really sell because you can , or just reduce the holding to a sensible level
i started with a ‘buy and hold ‘ strategy in 2011 but realized i had to stay more active ( but as an investor ) sure i made some novice errors , but rarely the same error twice ( that is still a LOT of potholes )
this was Posted 13 Oct 2018 at 10:05 AM
( i had be investing for about 7 years by then )
time to update there have been a couple of changes
( by $value )
1. WOW ( ‘free-carried’ )
2. MQG. ( ‘free-carried )
3. BHP ( some profit taken )
4. JHG ( full cash risk )
5. CLW ( full cash risk )
6. SVW ( some profit taken )
7. WES ( at full cash risk )
8. EQT ( ‘free-carried ‘ )
9. CMW ( at full cash risk )
10. CCL ( at full cash risk )
with CAM , BEAR and CDM all just behind the leaders .
( DYOR )
compare that to the latest ( end of year post
Posted 31 Dec 2024 at 3:08 PM
and at the end of December 2024
( by $value )
1. PME ( ‘free-carried ‘ )
2. MQG ( ‘free-carried ‘ ) ( less than half the PME $value ) ( DRPed )
3. CLW ( at full cash risk )
4. WES ( some profit taken ) (DRPed ) ( less than $25 behind )
5. BHP ( some profit taken )
6. CMW ( at full cash risk )
7. CUP ( at full cash risk )
8. SGLLV ( at full cash risk ) ( less than $100 behind )
9. KGN ( some profit taken )
10. CDM ( at full cash risk ) ( DRPed )
close behind is REP ( at full cash risk ), HCW ( at full cash risk ) and APE ( ‘free-carried’ )
you may note that PME ‘came from nowhere ‘ DESPITE selling more than 95% of the holding since i bought some in 2011
but even over that period of time (call it 7 years ) big names disappear , market darlings became yappers
hands on has had some very educational moments
but unless sheer catastrophe loomed large i probably would not sell everything ( that i could , some little stuff just wouldn’t have a buyer) and some is just 100% profit running ( like WOW , VAS , PME , MQG , TNE , and several more ) and if the economy was that bad ( or soon to be ) where would you park the money/value , gold has left the station ( a couple of years back )
there is a big change the cash will be valueless in a huge crisis
