Team USA and Mexico both had to huff and puff in the semifinals, but they each advanced to set up a tantalizing final in the 2025 Gold Cup on Sunday night.
The Stars and Stripes went up by two goals early on Guatemala, but they were put on their toes by an 80th-minute goal by Olger Escobar.
The Americans held on from there in a 2-1 win, continuing the trend of securing wins without being particularly convincing in this tournament.
Mexico, meanwhile, edged Honduras, 1-0, thanks to a 50th-minute goal from Raul Jimenez.
El Tri haven’t been a runaway train, either, but they haven’t allowed a goal since their 3-2 win over the Dominican Republic in their first match of the tournament.
So, not much to complain about in the Mexico camp.
Oddsmakers have installed Mexico as the -125 favorite to lift the trophy, and they are +160 to win the match within 90 minutes.
Team USA has +100 odds to be crowned champions and is +210 on the three-way moneyline.
2025 Gold Cup Final Odds: USA vs. Mexico
| Team | To win the trophy |
|---|---|
| USA | +100 |
| Mexico | -125 |
Mexico has been the favorite to win the Gold Cup since the tournament started, so it’s no surprise to see Javier Aguirre’s side getting love from the bookies for this match.
Team USA entered the tournament as the second-favorite, but the Yanks provided plenty of reasons to be skeptical about their chances for this tournament.
Not only was there some drama in the camp, but they lost four matches on the spin before the Gold Cup. It was the USMNT’s worst run of results since they lost five in a row in 2007.
The Gold Cup provided an opportunity for Mauricio Pochettino to stabilize the team, and he has accomplished that by guiding the Americans to five straight wins and an appearance in the final despite missing several key players for the entire tournament.
2025 Gold Cup Final: USA vs. Mexico betting preview
The Americans have won ugly at times but that’s often the path to success in CONCACAF, which is notorious for physical, whistle-filled matches.
The most encouraging sign for Team USA is that their offensive output has been impressive. No team has created more big scoring chances (22) than the Americans in this tournament, and only Panama has more expected goals (xG) than the Yanks’ 10.6.
Those numbers bode well for the Yanks against Mexico.
El Tri has been a defensive force in this tournament with only two goals and 1.5 xG conceded in four matches, but they also haven’t been tested by a team even close to the USA’s standard.
And while Mexico’s middling offensive output hasn’t burned them yet, they’ll need to bring a more threatening approach against the Americans.
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2025 Gold Cup Final: USA vs. Mexico pick
Mexico is averaging just 1.4 expected goals per match, which is not all that impressive when you judge it against the quality of competition they’ve faced.
The oddsmakers are having a tough time separating these two teams for good reason. While both Team USA and Mexico have made it to the final, they haven’t been entirely convincing.
That said, there is a difference between these two teams that could be the difference when it comes to finding value.
While Mexico has proven to be terrific at grinding out low-event matches, you have to wonder about their ability to win a back-and-forth affair with a competent offensive side.
The Yanks are the more versatile side, and in a matchup where you’re splitting hairs that’s enough to get us to the window for a play on the Stars & Stripes.
The Play: USA to win the trophy (+100, bet365)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
