by Calculated Risk on 7/25/2025 10:56:00 AM
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in June and a Look Ahead to July Sales
A brief excerpt:
After the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report, I pick up additional local market data that is reported after the NAR. This is the final look at local markets in June.
There were several key stories for June:
• Sales NSA are down 1.5% year-over-year (YoY) through June compared to the same period in 2024, and sales last year were the lowest since 1995! The YoY comparisons will be fairly easy for the next three months, so sales in 2025 might be close to the level in 2024.
• Sales SA were down or unchanged YoY for the 5th consecutive month and have been down YoY for 41 of the last 46 months.
• Months-of-supply is at the highest level since 2016.
• The median price is barely up YoY, and with the increases in inventory, some regional areas will see more price declines – and we might see national price declines later this year (or in 2026).
Sales at 3.93 million on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis were below the consensus estimate; however, housing economist Tom Lawler’s estimate was right on (usually very close).
Sales averaged close to 5.40 million SAAR for the month of June in the 2017-2019 period. So, sales are about 27% below pre-pandemic levels.
…In June, sales in these markets were up 4.7% YoY NSA. Last month, in May, these same markets were also down 3.8% YoY Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA). The NAR reported sales in June were up 4.0% YoY NSA, so this sample is close.
Important: There were more working days in June 2025 (20) than in June 2024 (19). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data was lower than for the NSA data. According to the NAR, seasonally adjusted sales were unchanged YoY in June.
…
More local data coming in August for activity in July!
There is much more in the article.
