Many Nigerians may be disappointed in how successive leaders since 1999 have pulled the levers of democracy and governance in the last 26 years, yet they would never trade democracy for military interregnum.
Nigeria had a high level of instability during the military regime. It saw a total of seven successful coups and two failed attempts between January 15, 1966 and November 17, 1993. For an investor, the nation was never a place to bet on as each military leader came with its own policies that would be changed by the next.
President Shagari’s ‘Green Revolution’ was trashed by Ibrahim Babandiga who placed a bet on the Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP). The annulment of the 1993 election regarded as the freest and fairest election and the misuse of the $12.4 billion oil windfall were two major highlights of the Babangida’s regime.
Then came Sani Abacha, the maximum dictator, who grew foreign reserves 19 times to $9.6 billion in four years (1997) and cut inflation from 54 percent to 8.5 percent. But the embezzlement of state funds under his regime and the execution of Ken Saro Wiwa and Ogoni Nine were his biggest sins. Then came Abdulsalami Abubakar who appointed Ephraim Akpata as the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) chairman and conducted an election that ushered in Olusegun Obasanjo as a civilian president in 1999.
Gains of democracy
Obasanjo, a former head of state, came straight from prison to become president under the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). Political analysts believe that Obasanjo was what Nigeria needed at that time due to the speed of his operations. He created the Independent Corrupt Practices Commission. He also set up the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) which tried a criminal group who sold sold fake airport to a Brazilian bank for $242 million.
Under Nuhu Ribadu, the current national security adviser, several criminal persons were tried and jailed. Obasanjo privatised 588 public enterprises and democratised telephones. He also gave Nigerians the Contributory Pension Scheme.
He initiated petrol subsidy removal, though it was resisted by labour unions in mid-2000. There was also the Paris debt forgiveness under his government.
Under Yar’Adua, peace was restored in the Niger Delta and electoral reforms began. After his death in February 2010, Goodluck Jonathan came to power under the doctrine of necessity. He won the 2011 presidential election and subsequently generated $454 billion from oil revenue. He dealt with Ebola outbreak and also organised the national conference where regions ventilated their worries. But its outcome is yet to be seen till today. He also conceded to Muhammadu Buhari in 2015 when he lost as an incumbent.
Buhari came to power in 2025 and began the first welfare scheme that cared for the poor, though it was allegedly marred by corruption.
Bola Tinubu came to power on May 29, 2023 and announced the removal of petrol and forex subsidies that day. Hence, he is the first Nigerian leader to liberalise the petrol and FX markets.
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Trials, turmoil
However, Nigeria has had more trials and turmoil that triumphs. Up till now, Obasanjo is still being accused of wasting $16 billion on power sector without results. His mooted ‘Third Term Agenda’ was his lowest point.
Yar’Adua’s government tested Nigeria’s democracy while he was sick. A cabal was said to have hijacked his government and sidelined Goodluck Jonathan, who later became president under difficult circumstances.
Ten years after leaving power, some of Jonathan’s ministers are still answering corruption cases.
After coming to power with high expectations, President Buhari disappointed several Nigerians. Today, he still has several human rights cases to answer for the way he used military power against Biafra separatists and Shia Muslims.
“He also enabled herders with his body language,” said Abdul Idama, a human rights lawyer.
“He took nepotism to another level, which is now being replicated by President Tinubu. The action of his government escalated the #EndSARS protest, which led to the murder of several civilians,” he noted.
Under Buhari, Ways and Means reached N22 trillion on his government’s debt binge. There were too many scandals in and after his administration, including the donation of $1 million to Afghanistan and the pass-off of an Ethiopian airplane for Nigerian Air.
The controversial change of currency broke the camel’s back. During the 2023 general election, his central bank governor Godwin Emefiele cut currency in circulation and denied Nigerians of cash. Political analysts linked the controversial currency change to an effort by Buhari and his cronies to scuttle Tinubu’s alleged plan to share cash during the election.
President Tinubu is just two years in power, but poverty is high. His petrol subsidy removal and FX liberalisation have created poverty and he hasn’t provided succour for the suffering Nigerians. Analysts say he has borrowed over N90 trillion in two years.
Stuck in reverse
According to the 2025 Governance Rating by World Economics, Nigeria ranks D, indicating poor performance in governance, corruption perception, rule of law, and press freedom. In contrast, Mauritius, Namibia, Senegal, Botswana, and Ghana score in the A and B categories.
Nigeria also slipped ten places in Reporters Without Borders’ 2024 Press Freedom Index, now ranked 122 out of 180. In Transparency International’s latest Corruption Perceptions Index, Nigeria ranked 140 out of 180, tied with Iraq and Cameroon, scoring 26 points.
This coincides with a troubling rise in poverty as over 129 million Nigerians now live below the national poverty line, up from 104 million in 2023, per the World Bank and National Bureau of Statistics.
“Look at Ghana, they held a peaceful election last year. Senegal too. Meanwhile, in my local government, we can’t even vote without thugs showing up. This is not democracy, its survival,” laments Adewale Lekan, a university graduate in Lagos.
Read also: Former presidential adviser Baba-Ahmed blasts Tinubu administration over failed expectations
A country rich, yet poor
Despite being Africa’s largest oil producer, Nigeria is knee-deep in economic quicksand. Youth unemployment is on the rise, inflation remains in double digits, and food insecurity forces millions to skip meals. The World Economic Forum ranked Nigeria 130th out of 141 countries in infrastructure quality in 2024.
Meanwhile, a select political class lives in luxury. Media reports are awash with stories of padded contracts, lavish furniture budgets, and foreign trips.
“It’s painful that the same politicians asking us to tighten our belts are living in opulence,” said the university graduate. “If this is democracy, it’s democracy for the rich.”
Fragile institutions, frustrated people
Analysts say Nigeria’s democratic failure stems from weak institutions and a lack of accountability. The judiciary is often accused of compromise, elections are riddled with irregularities, and the legislature is seen as a rubber stamp for the executive.
At the local government level, elections are rare or rigged, with officials often installed rather than elected.
“Other African countries are showing what democracy should look like. Meanwhile, we are still arguing over ballot snatching and vote buying,” said Samuel Adejobi, a Lagos-based teacher.
A 2024 Afrobarometer report revealed that 41 percent of Nigerians would accept military rule if elected leaders continue to abuse power, though 56 percent still reject a military takeover.
“Nigeria is virtually back to civilian dictators who don’t care how you feel or what you think. Nigerians are hungry,” said Dele Momodu, publisher of Ovation Magazine, on Channels Television on Wednesday.
“We’ve damaged this democracy, and I hope we’ve not damaged it beyond repair… All those who suffered for this democracy, especially those who are now in heaven, if they can see us, they would be crying.”
The human cost
The impact is not just economic, it is deeply human. Millions are displaced due to insecurity. Farmers flee bandits, students study in collapsed classrooms, and Nigeria is now the world’s worst place for women to give birth, according to a recent BBC report.
While Nigeria ticks the boxes of democracy, elections, parties, constitution, many argue that form has triumphed over substance.
“We have democracy without democrats,” said Adejobi. “The structures are there, but the soul is missing.”
As Nigeria reflects on June 12, a once-hopeful symbol now weighed down by disappointment, a question rings louder than ever: Is this really democracy?
