by Calculated Risk on 12/16/2025 09:23:00 AM
The headline jobs number in the November employment report was slightly above expectations, however August and September were revised down by 33,000 – and the initial October report indicates 105,000 job lost (mostly Federal Government jobs lost due to DOGE deferred resignation program). The unemployment rate increased to 4.6%.
Wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and was at 3.5% YoY in November, down from 3.7% YoY in October.
“The number of people employed part time for economic reasons was 5.5 million in November, an
increase of 909,000 from September. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but
were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time
jobs.“
The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in November to 5.49 million from 4.58 million in September. This is well above the pre-pandemic levels and the highest levels since mid-2021.
These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that increased to 8.7% from 8.0% in September. This is down from the record high in April 2020 of 22.9% and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.6%). (This series started in 1994). This measure is well above the 7.0% level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).
Unemployed over 26 Weeks
According to the BLS, there are 1.91 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, up from 1.81 million in September.
This is above pre-pandemic levels.
Summary:
The headline jobs number in the November employment report was slightly above expectations, however August and September were revised down by 33,000 – and the initial October report indicates 105,000 job lost (mostly Federal Government jobs lost due to DOGE deferred resignation program). The unemployment rate increased to 4.6%.
This was a weak employment report.