Amid the global surge in renewable energy generation, China has stunned the world by achieving 1,200 gigawatts (GW) or 1,200,000 megawatts (MW) of wind and solar power generation installed capacity in 2024, six years ahead of the 2030 target it set for itself. This has enabled the achievement of the COP 28 resolution of tripling global renewable energy capacity to 11,000 GW by 2030. It also plans to increase that capacity to 6000 GW of green energy by 2050, a milestone it could attain by 2040, and achieve carbon neutrality or net zero emissions by 2060, which it could now possibly achieve a decade earlier. The primary purpose of this article is to draw lessons for Nigeria.
“Nigeria’s power sector challenges can best be handled in the context of Nigeria’s overall development planning and industrial production, including equipment manufacturing.”
But first, a review of China’s remarkable strides towards massive renewable energy generation and energy transition. It has been the result of enormous efforts by a large number of Chinese and foreign companies – from solar panel and wind turbine manufacturers to grid infrastructure and project finance companies. “In essence, the achievement of 1200 GW was a collaborative effort involving numerous companies, government support, and a global network of suppliers and partners.” Chinese government involvement was a combination of policy support, subsidy payments for a large number of renewable energy projects and direct investment of 445 billion USD in grid infrastructure between 2020 and 2025. There is certainly a great deal to commend China for, which, though politically a communist state, has maintained a pragmatic mixed-economy policy that allows local and foreign private investors to operate side by side with government-owned enterprises. It is local and foreign renewable energy developers and investors that have largely achieved the 1200 GW renewable energy milestone with government policy support and subsidies. However, the biggest advantage China has is the largest local capacity globally for the manufacture of renewable energy equipment and low-cost finance. And China’s target is that by 2018, 48 percent of its electricity will come from renewable sources.
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However, the difficulty associated with such an extraordinary quantum of renewable energy is energy storage, which is beyond China’s immediate storage capacity and underscores the need for global collaboration. “According to experts, renewable energy systems cannot function well without sufficient storage capacity, and China’s early success could end up being a lost opportunity rather than a triumph. This is why, besides China, many other industries and countries are working on finding solutions that can conveniently cater to renewable energy to avoid complications and losses.”
China’s ascent to global economic dominance has been fuelled by heavy investment in its power sector. According to Rystad Energy, an independent research and energy intelligence company, China’s electricity consumption in 2023 was expected to total 7,400 terawatt-hours, 58 percent of which was to be generated by coal-fired plants. China has historically largely relied on coal-fired plants for its energy generation and is the largest polluter in the world. China is the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter, producing 28 percent of global emissions. China in the last 20 years, according to Rystad Energy, has prioritised the development of coal-fired plants. The total installed power generation capacity of China in 2023 was 2.92 terawatts (TW), that is, 2.92 trillion watts or 2.92 million megawatts. According to Ember, the global energy think tank, China had a 38 percent share of global clean energy in 2024, an 18 percent share of solar and wind, and a 62 percent share from fossil fuels. With the milestone generation of 1200 GW of green energy by December 2024, China would have achieved a total electricity generation capacity of over 3000 GW or over 3 million MW, which is certainly a remarkable achievement.
What lessons are there for Nigeria? First, let us compare China’s over 3,000,000 MW of power generation with Nigeria’s roughly 10,000 MW, combining industrial self-generation along with the public grid transmitted power and household solar power generation. It shows we have not even started. China has a population six times that of Nigeria but generates roughly over 300 times our power supply.
The second lesson is the commitment to development planning and project execution. China in 2020 set out to produce 1200 GW of renewable energy. By 2024 it has achieved the target, six years ahead of schedule, using a pragmatic strategy of government policy support, project subsidies and reliance on local and international renewable energy developers, manufacturers and financiers. The outstanding achievement was attained within China’s five-year development planning framework, which is executed within the context of decades-long consistent government policy of strong political will to national development planning and project implementation.
Third is the existence of a robust local industrial base for manufacturing and local production of power equipment. China produces 90 percent of global solar panels.
Fourth was the role of the private sector in achieving the generation of 1200 GW of green energy six years ahead of time in a country run by a communist party.
Nigeria’s power sector challenges can best be handled in the context of Nigeria’s overall development planning and industrial production, including equipment manufacturing. The current scenario where key economy line ministries operate in silos is not helping our economic growth and development. This is why the Tinubu Administration should, of strategic necessity and economic exigency, embrace medium-term development planning, where all the dots of power supply, industrial development, comprehensive economic reforms, among others, can be connected and effectively coordinated.
Mr Igbinoba is Team Lead/CEO at ProServe Options Consulting, Lagos.
