Calculated Risk: YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter

by Calculated Risk on 5/13/2025 08:46:00 AM

Here are a few measures of inflation:

The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned two years ago when services less rent of shelter was up around 8% year-over-year.  This declined and is now up 3.3% YoY.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the YoY price change for Services and Services less rent of shelter through April 2025.

The second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both strong demand and supply chain disruptions.

Durables were at -1.4% YoY as of April 2025, down from -1.0% YoY in March.

Commodities less food and energy commodities were at 0.2% YoY in April, up from 0.0% YoY in March.

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report (through April) and housing from the PCE report (through March)

Shelter was up 4.0% year-over-year in April, unchanged from 4.0% in March. Housing (PCE) was up 4.3% YoY in March, unchanged from 4.3% in February.

This is still catching up with private new lease data.

Core CPI ex-shelter was up 1.8% YoY in April.  This key measure has been at or below the Fed’s target for 8 of the last 12 months.