by Calculated Risk on 6/06/2025 01:11:00 PM
From BofA:
Since our last weekly publication, our 2Q GDP tracking is up to 2.7% q/q saar from 1.8% q/q saar and 1Q GDP is up two-tenths to 0.0% q/q saar. [June 6th estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman:
The details of the trade balance report indicated that April exports were stronger than our previous GDP tracking assumptions. We boosted our Q2 GDP tracking estimate by 0.4pp to +3.7% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and left our Q2 domestic final sales estimate unchanged at -0.5%. [June 5th estimate]
And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 3.8 percent on June 5, down from 4.6 percent on June 2. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 4.0 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively, to 2.6 percent and -2.2 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to annualized second-quarter real GDP growth increased from 1.36 percentage points to 2.01 percentage points. [June 5th estimate]
