by Calculated Risk on 7/25/2025 02:01:00 PM
The advance estimate of Q2 GDP will be released next Wednesday. The consensus is real GDP increased at a 2.5% annual rate in Q2. BofA economists noted this morning:
“The increase in the headline print would be on the back of a reversal of the surge in imports due to pre-tariff front loading in 1Q. Consumer spending should increase by 1.5% after the weather-driven 1Q decline. Equipment investment is likely to decline after the outsized increase in 1Q. Hence final sales will likely come in at a weak 0.3%.”
From BofA:
Since our last weekly publication, our 2Q GDP tracking is unchanged at 2.2% q/q saar. [July 25th estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman:
We left our Q2 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +2.7% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q2 domestic final sales estimate unchanged at +0.9%. [July 25th estimate]
And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 2.4 percent on July 25, unchanged from July 18 after rounding. The forecasts of the major GDP subcomponents were all unchanged or little changed from their July 18 values after this week’s releases from the US Census Bureau and the National Association of Realtors. [July 25th estimate]