Could the count in Bradfield be any closer? As history tells us, yes. Yes it could.
As of the latest update on Friday morning, the voting margin in the NSW seat is just four ballots, 27 days after the federal election was held.
At 11:04am, Liberal candidate Gisele Kapterian had 56,139 votes against independent Nicolette Boele’s 56,135.
That’s incredibly close — yet not the closest race we’ve ever seen, according to elections expert William Bowe, who writes the Poll Bludger blog.
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Bowe pointed out the final count in the 1919 race for the seat of Ballarat (back then spelt Ballaarat) ended up with Nationalist candidate Edwin Kerby just one vote ahead of Labor’s Charles McGrath.
“This led to a legal challenge in which it was ruled that two prospective voters had wrongly been denied a vote, the result being voided, and a by-election being held,” Bowe told Crikey.
“Something like it could very well happen in Bradfield if the final margin is lower than the number of observed irregularities, such as the inevitable few cases of multiple voting — typically about 15 — you get in any given electorate.”
But even that was not the closest race in Australian history. In the Victorian state election of 1985, there was an exact tie in the seat of Nunawading.
“The result was a tie, and at that time the system was that the returning officer only cast a vote in the event of a tie, which in this case they did in Labor’s favour,” Bowe said. “This too led to a legal challenge, a fresh election and the Liberals winning the seat, which prevented Labor gaining a majority.”
Bowe said there is no federal rule that says an Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) officer has the right to cast a deciding vote, and that the tie-breaking method would not be used on a federal level.
“In the event of a tie, the AEC will refer the matter to the court of disputed returns, which might determine a winner, most probably by overruling decisions that were made during the count as to what constituted a formal vote, or order a fresh election for the seat.”
