by Calculated Risk on 5/21/2025 03:12:00 PM
The ICE Home Price Index (HPI) is a repeat sales index. ICE reports the median price change of the repeat sales.
From ICE (Intercontinental Exchange):
Annual home price growth nationally slowed to 1.6% in May from 2% in April, as inventory surpluses that began in the Sunbelt spread to the West.
• 40% of the nation’s largest housing markets experienced seasonally adjusted month-over-month price declines from April to May, including 23 of the 24 top markets in the West
• The number of markets with year-over-year price declines increased from 9 to 23 by mid-May, with a majority (9) of the newcomers located in the West
• Those markets include: Denver (-1.6%), San Francisco and Stockton, Calif. (-1.5%), Phoenix (-1.2%), with more modest declines in Honolulu, Colorado Springs, Tucson, Sacramento, and San Diego
• That’s the largest number of markets with annual price declines since interest rates surged above 7.5% in late 2023
Price declines appear to be inventory driven:
• Western markets (led by California) have seen sharp rises in inventory, with every major California market now having at least +40% more homes available for sale than at the same time last year, led by Stockton (+87% ) and Oxnard and San Diego (+70% each)
• Inventories in San Francisco, San Jose, and Stockton have already surpassed pre-pandemic levels, with other California markets on pace to ‘normalize’ later this year
If current trends persist, we could see prices fall year over year in even more West Coast markets.
As ICE mentioned, cities in the South have been leading the way in inventory increases and price declines (especially Florida and Texas). Now the West Coast markets are following, although inventory levels are mostly still below the pre-pandemic levels.
