Air passenger traffic in Nigeria is yet to return to pre-pandemic levels due to low disposable income, high cost of air fares and depleting fleet size.
The country’s passenger movement has seen steady reduction in the domestic air travel patronage since 2021.
Before COVID, Nigerian airports processed an average of 17 million passengers annually, but since 2021 till date, the number has hovered between 13 million to 16 million, showing stunted growth.
On the other hand, South Africa, Kenya and Egypt, which are emerging African economies, have recorded some levels of growth after the COVID-19 era.
“The economy has negatively impacted incomes and indeed pressured the middle-class that is the growth driver. The cost of living has increased and is not at the same pace as the income. The higher exchange rate accentuates this because Nigerians usually peg or mark their living in respect to the USD,” Seyi Adewale, CEO Mainstream Cargo Ltd, said.
Adewale hinted that the Japa syndrome has lowered the rate of travels as many with good jobs have moved outside the country.
According to the Nigeria Civil Aviation Authority (NCAA) executive summary of international and domestic flight operations from January to December 2024, passenger traffic from all Nigeria’s local and international airports stood at 15,685,192.
In 2021, Nigeria recorded 14, 249, 542 passengers, according to the NCAA. This was made up of 12, 050, 264 domestic passenger movements and 3, 199, 278 international passenger movements.
In 2022, air travel traffic peaked at 16.2 million in both domestic and international travels. More than 12 million were on domestic travel, while about four million travelled to international destinations.
Nigeria recorded a total number of 15, 685, 272 passengers in 2023, which were fewer than 16, 172, 433 who passed through the airports in 2022.
Read also: Nigerians skip air travel as high costs ground flights
Kenya movements
While data for all Kenya’s airports were not available, its busiest airport, Jomo Kenyatta International Airport (JKIA), along with major other airports, was captured in the data.
Kenya’s pre-COVID air passenger figures were almost 12 million.
In 2021, most Kenya’s airports recorded 7.32 million passengers.
In 2022, the numbers rose to 10.2 million total passengers.
In 2023, the numbers further increased to 12.2 million total passengers, hitting its pre-COVID era.
Data for 2024 were not yet compiled at the time this report was done.
Egypt trips
Egypt’s pre-COVID air passenger figures show an average of 12 million.
In 2021, approximately 7.94 million air passengers travelled through Egyptian airports.
In 2022, Egyptian airports recorded an exponential growth of 38 million passengers, surpassing pre-COVID era. This figure placed Egypt as the top performer in terms of total passenger traffic in Africa. Notably, Cairo International Airport played a significant role, accommodating over 26 million passengers.
In 2023, Egyptian airports saw a significant increase in passenger traffic, reaching nearly 47 million travellers, a 28 percent surge compared to the previous year.
In 2024, Cairo International Airport, the largest and busiest in Egypt, handled 27.7 million passengers. Other Egyptian airports recorded 22 million passengers. This indicates that the entire passenger figure for 2024 was 49.7 million, another significant increase from previous year.
Egyptian airports experienced a nine percent increase in passenger traffic compared to 2023, reaching a total of 22.097 million passengers.
Read also: Jobs, trade see air passenger demand hits record high in 2024
South Africa’s travellers
For South Africa, data were not available for all its airports but BusinessDay captured data for four busiest airports in the country, which include: O.R. Tambo International Airport (Johannesburg), Cape Town International Airport, King Shaka International Airport (Durban), and Lanseria International Airport.
South Africa’s pre-COVID figure for these four airports stood at an average of 39.6 million passengers.
In 2021, the four South Africa airports recorded 23.7 million passengers. The figures rose to 30.8 million passengers in 2022. In 2023, the number further rose to 34.3 million. All figures for 2024 were not available at the time of compiling these reports. While South African air passenger traffic is yet to hit pre-COVID era, the passenger traffic numbers have recorded steady growth since 2021.
What Nigeria must do
Olumide Ohunayo, industry analyst and director of research, Zenith Travels, “The domestic airlines operating in Nigeria are struggling and losing capacity and this has not allowed fares to come down. There is also a general inflationary trend within the economy caused by the floating of the naira and the fuel price hike, which affected transportation generally.”
According to him, all the factors have not encouraged passengers to fly.
He also mentioned that the incessant delays and cancellations have also discouraged travels.
Sam Odein, an Lagos-based economist, said there is a need for the government to create a strategy to lift millions of Nigerians out of poverty.
“There is so much poverty here, and only those who can afford to travel actually travel.”
Data obtained by BusinessDay from the NCAA last year showed that 13 domestic airlines in Nigeria operate a total of 91 aircraft. This data include aircraft that have gone on maintenance.
Sources close to the NCAA told BusinessDay that apart from Dana Air that has been grounded, over half of the 91 aircraft have gone on maintenance while some have remained aircraft on ground, putting a strain on the few operating aircraft.
BusinessDay’s checks show that five years ago, there were just 10 domestic airlines operating on Nigerian routes. However, they had over 120 planes at that time.
