Calculated Risk: July Vehicle Forecast: Sales “Rebound”

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by Calculated Risk on 7/24/2025 04:21:00 PM

From J.D. Power: New-Vehicle Retail Sales Up 4.1% for July and Consumer Spending Sets Record for Month with $49.8 Billion Spent on New Vehicles Brief excerpt:

The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total new-vehicle sales is expected to be 16.4 million units, up 0.8 million units from July 2024.

emphasis added

From Haig Stoddard at Omdia: US Light Vehicle Sales Headed for Rebound in July (pay content).  Brief excerpt:

July US light-vehicle sales will improve on June’s results, as the expected negative impacts from automotive tariffs are yet to fully kick in.

Vehicle Sales ForecastClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and J.D. Power’s forecast for July (Red).

On a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis, the J.D. Power forecast of 16.4 million SAAR would be down 6.9% from last month, and up 3.6% from a year ago.



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