by Calculated Risk on 7/03/2025 03:47:00 PM
From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) AAR Data Center. Graph and excerpts reprinted with permission.
In recent months the U.S. economy has defied easy
characterization, caught between signals of underlying
strength and uncertainty regarding the road ahead.
Rail freight volumes have followed that lead, reflecting
a mix of cautious optimism and lingering hesitation
across key sectors. The uncertainty characterizing both
the economy and freight markets is likely to continue
because key drivers of economic momentum—
including the labor market, consumer spending,
inflation levels, interest rates, and economic policies
across the globe—remain fluid.
emphasis added
On intermodal:
U.S. rail intermodal originations fell 2.9% (31,000
containers and trailers) in June 2025 from June 2024,
their first year-over-year decline in 22 months. June’s
decline comes amid broader uncertainties impacting
global supply chains that have tempered international
shipments. In June 2025, U.S. rail intermodal volume
averaged 260,834 units per week, below the 2016-2005
average for June of 263,991.Meanwhile, total U.S. rail carloads (excluding intermodal)
rose 2.1% (nearly 19,000 carloads) in June 2025 over
June 2024, their fourth straight year-over-year increase—
the first time that’s happened since late 2021. In June, 10
of the 20 carload categories tracked by the AAR had year
over-year gains. Total U.S. rail carloads averaged 226,259
per week in June 2025, the most for June since 2021. In the
66 months since January 2020, only 14 months had a higher weekly average than June 2025 did.
