Calculated Risk: Q1 GDP Tracking: Near Zero Growth

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by Calculated Risk on 4/04/2025 01:12:00 PM

From BofA:

Since our last publication, our 1Q GDP tracking is up from 0.1% q/q saar to 0.4% q/q
saar
. [Apr 4th estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

We left our Q1 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +0.3% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). [Apr 3rd estimate]

GDPNowAnd from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.8 percent on April 3, up from -3.7 percent on April 1. The alternative model forecast, which adjusts for imports and exports of gold as described here, is -0.8 percent. [Apr 3rd estimate]



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