An illegal gambling company is paying Australian TikTok and Instagram creators to promote Australian federal election bets.
Polymarket is a US-based company that offers “prediction markets” for people to bet cryptocurrency on the outcomes of just about anything: sports matches, pop-culture milestones and, of course, political contests.
It was at the forefront of a trend of US election betting during last year’s presidential contest. This resulted in the FBI raiding the apartment of founder Shayne Coplan over allegedly allowing illegal betting (although Coplan’s appearance at the White House last month suggest things may have simmered down).
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Now this coverage extends to the Australian federal election: anyone can place bets on major events, such as who will win the election by having the most seats in Parliament, or who will be the next prime minister.
The site also caters to smaller markets, like who will win the seat of Brisbane or whether Peter Dutton will lose his seat.
Polymarket is illegal in Australia. It is not a licensed interactive gambling provider under Australia’s media regulator ACMA. It has also been banned in several countries including France, Switzerland and Belgium.
An ACMA spokesperson said that it had not yet received any complaints about Polymarket, but would consider launching an official investigation into the service after it had been flagged by Crikey.
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“The ACMA uses various means, including complaints from the public, to identify possible breaches of Australia’s online gambling laws,” the spokesperson said in an email.
Unlike licensed gambling companies which do offer betting on politics but usually capped at nominal amounts, there are no limits on how much someone could bet on Polymarket — meaning there is a significant upside, particularly for anyone who might have inside information (like MPs and campaign staffers). One user bet US$60,800 on Peter Dutton having a 64% chance of being the next prime minister at the beginning of February (the same market now gives Dutton an 18% chance).
That hasn’t stopped Polymarket from targeting Australian audiences by paying popular Instagram and TikTok accounts to create content using Polymarket’s betting markets.
Messages obtained by Crikey from The Chaser show how Polymarket approached the satirical news outlet to do a “paid partnership” around “markets and odds on the upcoming Australian elections and their synergies”.
The messages stressed that the “key point is we’re an information market rather than betting”.
While The Chaser didn’t take up Polymarket’s offer, there are a number of prominent Australian creators who’ve posted videos in the past week that appear to be paid content.
This includes TikTok creator @CozzAu (who has 945,000 followers), former Sky News host and @gowokegobroke creator Carla Efstratiou (who deleted the video after being contacted by Crikey)@aussiecomedylegendspodcast (which has 133,000 followers and blocked this reporter after being contacted), @austoday (with 159,000 followers) and satirical Labor account @australian_child_labor.
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Each of these creators cited Polymarket odds and tagged the company’s account in their posts. Crikey confirmed a least two of these posts were paid content.
And while it’s impossible to know for certain, many of the accounts commenting on Polymarket’s platform appear to be Australian based on their familiarity with Australian politics, spelling, and account details that match other Australian’s accounts.
Polymarket did not respond to questions about whether it operates in Australia and has Australian customers, but Crikey was able to establish an account pretty easily by using a VPN.
One Polymarket user called Mallory — who has put money on each of Anthony Albanese, Peter Dutton, Tanya Plibersek and Jim Chalmers being Australia’s next prime minister — summed up the election campaign.
“Never has there been two worse options in the history of elections,” they said.
